Research On The Issue Of Real Estate Bubble In Xi'an

The real estate industry is the leading and basic industry, plays a significant role in the development of other related industries. The real estate industry is also one of the pillar industries in the national economy. Compared to other developed countries in the world, the development of our real estate market is much later. The development of the market is still far from mature and there exists issues such as the supplies and demands imbalance, intensified speculation, etc. The development of the real estate is heated up; the skyrocket prices have been gaining a great attention. The dispute over real estate bubble is also heating up. At the same time the global financial crisis which is caused by the sub prime lending crisis in 2008 has once again sounded the alarm against a bubble. So it has the great significance both in terms of theory and solving the realistic problems that research on the problem of real estate bubble and find a suitable method of measuring the degree of it.In this thesis, the research sample is the real estate market in Xi'an. On the basis that the theoretical analysis of the real estate bubble, providing an overview of the definitions, characteristics and hazards of the real estate bubble, evaluating simply on the measures used current commonly of the real estate bubble and the academic dispute on the issue whether there is the real estate bubble, studying the development and the status quo of the real estate market in Xi'an, choosing Ramsey Model to measure the degree of the real estate bubble Xi'an, putting forward some policy recommendations, and at last summarizing the researchs innovations, shortages and putting forward some further research directions.In this thesis, the degree of bubble is first detailed analyzed and measured in four forms of the real estate bubble separately and then summarized as the whole bubble degree. The four forms are the land price bubble, vacant housing bubble, real estate investment and housing prices bubble. In the process of measuring the real estate investment bubble, using Eviews software and datas to do a regression analysis, founding that real estate demand and prices change in the same direction, confirming the existence of speculation in Xi'an real estate market. Finally, policy recommendations and the reason analysis are specifically based on the calculation results. This may help the real estate market in Xi'an developing healthily.