Quantitative Analysis And Strategy Of Influencing Factors Of Grain Production In Henan Province

Agriculture is the base of national economy and grain is the base of foundation.Henan province as the first big agricultural and grain production area of our contry is the population large province. It is well known that shortage of grain can lead to chaos of economic developmentof Henan Province, or even China. So the food security problem of Hena province plays an important role in the grain production and circulation in China. The studies summed up by our predecessors manifest that the fluctuation of grain production in Hunan Province has exerted a tremendous influence to that of grain production in China. So the Study on the development trend of grain production and analysis of influencing factors in Henan Province will contribute much to the stability of national food to increase grain production stably.This paper first reviews the garin production history in Henan since the reform and open policy. The existence problems are such as: the decline of the quantity and quality of the land, poor constrction of agricultural infrastructure, lower farmers' enthusiasm for planting grain crops and the descent quality trend of labour qualities.Second, it introduces the principle of principal component analysis and its modeling steps, and then uses it to analyze 10 or 12 influencing factors in Henan Province divided the total period into three stages: 1979 to 1989, 1990 to 1999 and 2000 to 2007. And then this paper systematically introduces the principle and modeling steps of Deng's correlation degree, the principle of B-type correlation degree, T-type correlation degree and slope correlation degree. Using the model of Deng's correlation degree, we calculate the grey correlation degrees of three periods and get the main influence factors order. The factors of common, stable and big chnges are further analyzed. Then, when constructing the double logarithmic production model of Henna province from 1990 to 2007, we choose grain planting area, effective irrigation area, number of agricultural labor, total power of agricultural machinery, fertilizer consumption and disaster area of crops as the independent variables. After testing and analysizing the model, we choose the model of five variables removing total power of agricultural machinery as the optimal model. We divide the period of rapid growth in grain production, decline and recovery period, and then calculate the contribution rates respectively. The output of the three stages is compared after the contribution rates are normalized, and shows fertilizer consumption, grain planting area and number of agricultural labor rank the first three places.As the food system is a very complex one, there are too many influencing factors.With the help of principal component analysis and grey correlation analysis, the paper find the main influencing factors of garin production in Henan Province by dividing the total period into three stages: 1979 to 1989, 1990 to 1999 and 2000 to 2007. In addition, it construcs the production model of Henna province from 1990 to 2007 between grain production and its main influencing factors. And the contribution rates are calculated respectively according to different period of time. The results show that the grain production in Henan province is still in the traditional agriculture stage, where to increase gain production mainly mainly relys on the increase of conventional input factors. With the development of science and technology and with the improving of mechanization, Henan should increase science and technology investment to achieve the transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture.