Analysis On Interaction Of Karamay Freight Demand And Economic Development

ABSTRACT: With the global resources increasingly shortage, it’s the the fundamental value of Sustainable Development all over the world. Subsequent research suggested that close to one third Resource-Based Cities are defined to be Resource-exhausted Cities in China. The Problem for researching industrial transformation of Resource-exhausted City is imperative. In order to realize sustainable and harmonious developing, the Karamay puts forward the objective of "the global petroleum city" by seizing the opportunity in2010. However,with the development of economy and the transformation of industry, it’s important to research on the coordination development of freight demand with economy in Karamay.Freight transport system is a large and complex systems engineering.Many impact factors of freight demand makes the development of freight demand with economy complicated. Based on the review of relavent research home and abroad, eombined with investigation data, The effection of economic development on freight demand, the dynamic relationship between the development of economy and freight demand, the strategy of the coordination development of freight demand with economy are analysed. The main contents and results are as following:Through combining the characteristics of freight, the dissertation samples5indexes as the development level of transportation, production consumption, economic development level, industrial structure and resource exploitation, reflecting the freight development level of Karamay. This analysis shows on the basis of factor analysis that the comprehensive scores of the freight development level which are increasing year by year, from-1.53in1996to1.43in2010.Systemic analysis of the characteristics of freight demand and the factors that the freight demand was done. As a kind of derivation demand, the main impact factors of freight demand include natural resources and productivity layout, social economic development level, the strategic policy of freight transport and the development level of transportation. This dissertation focuses on economic development which includes economic aggregate and industrial economic characteristics. The results show that, the relationship between freight volume and industrial economic characteristics has been mainly reflected on the ratio of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry, which the correlation coefficients are0.842and0.277respectively. This paper also builds systematic dynamics model of freight demand to illustrate the dynamic relationship between the development of economy and freight demand by analysis on the model characteristic. After determining the parameters of the model, test and verify it with historical data, the absolute error of which is less than5%, it shows that the simulation result is highly close to the reality, so the model can simulate the actual system effective.By using the model, the paper simulates the relationship of freight demand and economic development, through the adjustment of the parameters. The conclusion showed that with the development of Karamay economy, the growth rate of freight demand will promote dramatically. To the year of2020, the freight demand of Karamay will reach16255.4tons, having26.8%increase compared to the result under status development model, and the supplies ability have an increase of115.9%, the supply and demand of freight will keep balance, the freight system will achieve a healthy development.