Study Of The Impact Of Service Trade Liberalization On China's Dualistic Trade

Rapid development of service trade leads to the trade structure reform in the world and every country, including China. The extended trade structure consisting of goods trade and service trade which broken through the traditional trade classification has been used increasingly wider. Trade liberalization has been promoted in countries, and the development of goods trade and service trade betrayed different characteristics in countries. Service trade develops backward while goods trade is getting dramaticly growth. Study of the relationship between service trade liberalization and China's trade structure is significant for the time being.In this thesis, the concept of dualistic trade is defined and the world and China's trade constructure, current situation is been analysed and summarized, basing on the previous work. Applying the welfare effects theory of service trade liberalization, author analyzes detailedly welfare change of the service and goods industry of service market-openning country, then veriries whether the service trade liberalization is a cause to form the structure of dualistic trade in a country. Author introduces quantification method on service trade liberalization and estimated the openning degree of services trade with Direct Estimation Method. After that author builds severy indicators to measure our country's dual trade structure on foundation of the theory of dual economic structure and other relevant methods, then quantified the trade structure.It is the most important feature in this paper that model is established by gray theory to analyzed the correlation between liberalization level of services trade and dual trade structure indicator and used gray forecast theory to predict the value of dusal trade indicator. The conclusion of the thesis summarizes the previous inllustraded content, predicts the trend of goods and services trade development and gives recommendations and policies.