| Through systematic analysis the fluctuations and characteristics of the pork price, this paper trends to reveal the pork price; With dates about the pork market in recent years, the main factors affecting price fluctuation as well as the direction and extent of these factors are analyzed. The significance of this paper lies in the predictability which will enable pig raisers to make scientific raising decisions and avoid fluctuation risks by making judgment with the change of the factors, while governments and institutions can stabilize pork price and the pork market by avoiding sharp increases and decreases.■Main contents:Based on analysis of relevant researches both at home and abroad, the thesis reviewed the relative theories on the formation of the prices of agricultural products and defined the construction of pork prices. Then the fluctuation of pork prices is approached from three aspects.1. The time characteristics of the fluctuation of the pork prices. This is an overall research with two indexes:average price and fluctuation degree. And the time characteristics are divided into long-term tendency and short-term fluctuation;2. The regional characteristics of the pork prices. Seven regions are divided:North-China, Northeast, East-China, Central-China, South-China, Southwest, and Northwest. Since the consumption of pork is extremely low in Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Tibet because of religious beliefs and consumption customs, these areas are not included in the scope of current research. The production and consumption of the above-mentioned areas are studies from four indexes:total production, production per capita, total consumption and consumption per capita;3. The factors affecting the fluctuation of pork prices. On the basis of the fore-mentioned research, the factors which influence the change of pork prices are analyzed both theoretically and empirically.■Conclusions:1. Since 2000, the pork prices in China changed remarkably. Such fluctuation was significant with its large extent on the one hand, and the holistic increase of the prices on the other.2. The prices gap among different regions. Ranked by region, prices in the East coastal areas are the highest and the West part the lowest with the central part in the middle.3. The most important factor which influences pork prices is the supply of pork. The price of pig and the cost of raising them is the most significant aspect in the price of pork, especially, the price of pig has a magnifying affect in the pork market.4. Serious epidemics lead to the increase of prices. Since pig-raising is the combination of economic reproduction and biological reproduction and from decision-making to selling (which lasts about 4 months), the epidemics during this period would result in sharp reduction of supply and consequentially high prices of pork.■Countermeasure suggestion:1.Take many possible measures to ensure the supply of pig. We can carry it out from the following aspects:First, reduce the cost of raising pigs by:(1) aiding agriculture by industry and increase the support and subsidy for agriculture-related companies (e.g. pork-processing companies); (2)deepen the reform of agriculture-relative company and the whole industry; (3)deepen the reform of agriculture production circulation and sales system. Fight against monopoly and facilitate the formation of market competition.Second, develop the method of raising pigs.Third, set up long-term system and stabilize the prices.Fourth, popularize the insurance of pig raising industry, and guarantee the pig supply.2. Reduce the frequency of unexpected accidents. Increase the budget on research, develop superior breed with high epidemic prevention ability and immunity. Fine breed pigs can reduce the frequency of illness and infection, and the decrease of the pig death rate helps reduce the cost of production. Methods under application are:(1)enlarging the economic support for agricultural colleges and research institutions; (2)forming a complete and reasonable agricultural research system; (3) establish and refine a promoting system for high-quality raising methods.3. Reduce production cost. Government can strengthen the management of slaughtering and circulation to standardize market order and reduce the cost caused in the process of circulation. We can start in two ways:(1)strengthen the management of circulation and increase the organizing degree of pig selling. Complete pig production and selling company's interest connection and formalize purchasing behavior. Facilitate pig raiser and large companies to form stable cooperating relationship; (2) increase the support for pork processing companies. On the one hand, advanced slaughtering and processing techniques should be brought in to reduce production and management cost. On the other hand, preference and reduction should be given to key pork processing companies in terms of tax and management fee.■Originality:This research has two innovation spots:At the first place, qualitative and quantitative methods are applied to analyze the affecting factors of fluctuation of pork prices, making the research more persuasive. At the meantime, historical data and relative mathematics models are used to ensure the accuracy of the research result. Secondly, the research employs spider-web model to explain why the main reason causing the fluctuation of pork prices is the delay of decision makers' reaction to the economic information. The delay, which consists the inner characteristic of price fluctuation, exists in the whole process of pork supply, from its raising, selling to pork supply. Based the status quo of the delay, the current research proposes that quickening the information construction of pork market and facilitate the spread of pork market information is an effective measure for stabilizing pork price. |
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