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Research On The Correlation Between Construction Of Our Country's Coastal Ports And National Economic Development

Posted on:2011-07-15Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:N JiangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2189360302999428Subject:Transportation planning and management
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Port is a combination of various modes of transport, and the coastal port is a hub for both domestic and foreign trade. By the influence of financial crisis, the global economy nosedived, sagged the international trade, which directly affected the throughput of the port. In China, the investment of the coastal ports increased. Port construction caused by excessive investment in excess capacity caused the decline of the port utilization ratio. In particular, at the background of 4 Trillion investment economic stimulus plan, the overmuch of the port handling capacity and investment become the focus of controversy.Based on the analysis of the current status of development of coastal ports and domestic economic environment, I use of Econometrics in Cointegration and Error Correction Model to research the long-term balance and short-term dynamic changes relationship between coastal port construction and economic development. Using Granger Causality Test studies the interaction mechanism between them. And using the same theory to analyze the status of the coastal region of Port Groups and their hinterlands'economic. According to the final results of the model, I analyze the investment and construction of the current situation of coastal ports and make proposals of coastal port construction and development in the current situation.Through quantitative analysis of investment in fixed assets in coastal ports and GDP, on the long-term and short-term the output elasticity is 0.008 and 0.155. Respectively indicating coastal port construction has a significant positive effect on the national economic growth. On the scale of a nation, the investment of coastal port construction is suitable for the current national economic development, and there has a strong two-way causality, and they are mutually reinforcing. Using the same method on the coastal region of Port Groups, the Pan-Pearl River Delta region reached the high short-term elasticity, the short-term elasticity in the Yangtze River Delta is low, while the short-term elasticity in the Bohai Sea area is modest, indicating in the coastal exist investment imbalance between the coastal region of Port Groups.
Keywords/Search Tags:Coastal Ports, Investment in Fixed Assets, National Economy, Cointegration Test, Error Correction Model, Granger Causality Test
PDF Full Text Request
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