Research On Aging Of Population And The Balance Of The Pension Insurance's Supply And Demand

In 1999, China entered into the aging society. And from then on, the number of China's elderly population has increased; it has been directly deepening the degree of aging. As China's social security system, particularly the pension insurance system has not been well established; the aging of population may have a huge impact on it. In order to maintain economic development and social stability, the sustainability of pension insurance is crucial.This paper, which based on the interest theory and the actuarial life table theory, concerns on the pension insurance's supply and demand and tries to establish models of social pension insurance and individual pension insurance. After considering the elderly population growth rate, wage growth rate, the average replacement rate, this paper attempts to forecast the supply and demand of the pension insurance in the long run. The model predicts:in the social pension insurance aspect, during the 2009～2020 period, the pace of aging population in Beijing will further accelerate, and meanwhile with the reduction of newborn population, the demographic dividend will be eliminated. The pension insurance will be in short supply, and the gap will continue to increase; in the individual pension insurance aspect, during the 2009～2046 period, the total supply of pension insurance (the combination of basic pension and individual account pension) will be much lower than the demand. And the law is shown that the faster the wage grows, the larger the gap will be.The aging of population and the shortage of the pension insurance in Beijing is just an epitome of China. As developed countries experienced the aging of population earlier than China, many countries have made unremitting efforts to solve this problem. After summarizing their practical experience, this paper puts forward six measures:1. to reshape the scientific concept of pension insurance; 2. to construct multi-pillar elderly security system; 3. to improve the level of basic pension; 4. to balance the level and scope of pension insurance; 5. to maintain and increase the value of pension insurance; 6. timely to introduce measures to extend the retirement age.