Predicting Study On The Regional Economic Effects Of Mianyang-Chengdu-Leshan Intercity Dedicated Passenger Railway

High-speed railway has more and more superiority in development of. economic and social and its construction is just beginning through the world. As the key point of railway construction, dedicated passenger railway will have important significance on national and regional economic and social development. High-speed railway has the characters of high speed, large volume, high security, convenient and comfortable. As a inter-city of high speed railway, The MianYang-ChengDu-LeShan inter-city dedicated passenger line has the common characteristic with high-speed railway. On the basis of previous studies, this paper proposes creatively the analysis theoretical framework of regional economic effect of high-speed railway.Firstly, based on the analysis framework of regional economic effects of high-speed railway, this paper forecasts the direct regional economic effect of the MianYang-ChengDu-LeShan inter-city dedicated passenger railway and analyzes its transportation structure optimization effect. Secondly, the paper analyses the profound influence of the industrial development of the area along the line. This paper argues that MianYang-ChengDu-LeShan inter-city dedicated passenger railway will drive obviously tourism industry of the area along the line which be possessed of rich tourism resources itself, and based on location factors and the principle of spatial gravity attenuation, the area along the line has been divided into the main, the general and the secondary induced area, and uses the quadratic regression model to predict the number of induced tourists and new increasing tourism revenues. This paper argues that it will improve the accessibility of space, promote the rapid flowing of the innovative resources such as talent, technology, information, increase the value of the land of the railway crossing areas, promote economic development and population agglomeration of the area along the line, which will stimulate the high-tech industries, real estate and transportation development.The urban development effects of MianYang-ChengDu-LeShan inter-city dedicated passenger railway mainly Manifestes in the three aspects of city rank-size, spatial attractiveness and functions structure. First, after it completed, under the diffusion and agglomeration effects, the cities along the line will form a win-win closer urban system. Secondly, using Haynes, Fotheringham space gravity model to calculate, this paper indicates that the spatial attractiveness of the cities along the line will increase exponentially because of the construction, and based on the theory of transport economic belt, this paper divides the regional distribution of Sichuan Province under the influence of it into the space development pattern named "one core, two belts, two zones, multi-polar". Finally, as the point of the industrial division, this paper analyzes the urban functional structure effect of the line.