Research On The Evolvement And Influence Factors Of Shandong's Export Commodity Structure

Since the reformation and being open to the world, Shandong's national economy has been incorporated into the world. Its export trade has developed steadily both in scale and structure. Also its export structure has been optimizing. In this paper we study on the structure of Shandong's export commodities and its evolution characteristics, influence factors, and made a forecast on the trends of export growth and goods structure upgrading. At the last section the paper takes forward corresponding suggestions on optimization of the structure of Shandong's export commodities.This paper analyses evolvement of Shandong export status and structure during 1980 to 2008 from different views. The results show that Shandong export has been growing rapidly, its structure has been optimizing. For the empirical research, the author works out five factors which influence the Shandong structure of export goods, specified variables, established an analytic model and tested the model with historical data. And then, the author screened out some types of goods with higher technologic and value-added content and greater export potential, with the factors got from the model, analyzed and forecasted the growth trend of Shandong export goods structure. In the near future, export competitiveness of labor-intensive products will be maintained, and the export of those goods with comparatively higher technological, capital and value-added content will grow rapidly, which will continuously promote the upgrading of export goods structure.The research shows that there are objective rules in the export goods structure upgrading, and export promoting policy can get better effects only when complying with the rules. At the last section the author summarizes the whole paper and takes forward corresponding suggestions for the optimization of Shandong export goods stricture.