Simulation On The Change Of Land Use Structure In Duolun County Base On GIS-SD Model

Land use is a kind of long-term or periodic activities about manage and use the land,according to the natural features of the Land and a certain economic and social objectives,introduce a series of biologic and technical methods. It is a complex process that natural,economic and social factors affect. Factors of affecting land use are divided into two categories: factitious factors and natural factors. Among them human factors play a decisive role. With urbanization , industrialization development and population growing,good coordination of relationship between land and person has become an urgent need to address sustainable development issues. In this paper,the study area is Duolun County in Inner Mongolia,TM images of 1987,1995,2000,2005 and 2008 for the data source,extracted the Duolun County land utilization information. Through the analysis of land utilization structural change factors of Duolun County,combined with socio-economic statistical data to establish a land use structure SD analog system of Duolun County,land utilization scene of Duolun County has been simulated in future ten years by using Vensim software. To the question which exists in development of the current Duolun county land use structure , put forward countermeasures for the future planning and management of Duolun County provides a scientific basis.The results are as follows:(1)The land use of Duolun County has a certain degree of fluctuation in 1987—2008,and it has been greatly improved. The composite index of land use has ascended from 183.4377 in 1987 to 214.3158 in 2008. The area of cultivated land,woodland,grassland and construction land have a certain degree of growth,the area of waters and unused land decreased to some extent. Among them,the cultivated land and construction land increased smaller, respectively , from 49000 hm2 and 5432.6 hm2 in 1987 to 50670 hm2 and 5916.3 hm2 in 2008. The grassland and woodland area have increased significantly,respectively,from 6901.2 hm2 and 197888.6 hm2 in 1987 to 102162.5 hm2 and 217885.2 hm2 in 2008.(2)Through the analysis of the mechanism of structural changes in Duolun County,extracted the main factors which affect the land structural changes in Duolun County such as population,economy,food supplies and so on. Among them,the economic development is the most important factor that affects the land structural changes in Duolun County.(3)Through the simulation of the land use structure in Duolun County,showed that under the pattern the natural development model and economic priority development model,not conducive to the sustainable development of land utilization in Duolun County. In order to make Duolun to achieve sustainable development,we must implement a environment coordinated development model,dealing good with the relationship between economic development and the land use structure,while develop economy,pay great attention to the environmental protection and rational allocation of land resources.(4)Considering the change of the land use structure in Duolun County,it carries out scene analysis and proposes the suggestion of sustainable development of land use in Duolun County:①While developing in economy,it should Strengthen the protection of the environment and continue carrying out the project of withdrawing farmland and returning to grassland and forestland.②It should increase agricultural investment and improve productivity of the land in order to promote the improvement of agricultural production and output value. Take effective measures to improve soil,reduce soil salinization and improve land productivity. In addition,the infrastructure construction of water conservancy must be strengthened and effective irrigation area of farmland must be improved.③Limit excessive grazing and protect the grassland resources.④Promote intensive land use and improve the level of land use. It should increase the effective investment in land in order to improve the land use efficiency and economic benefits and play greater functionality in limited land resources.⑤Deepen the adjustment of industrial structure and coordinate the sustainable development of land resources. Change the traditional development mode that is characterized by a large number of consumption of resources energy,with advanced technology to transform traditional industries and improve economic benefits,social benefits and environmental benefits in order to develop the regional economy sustainably in long-term.