Simulation On Cultivated Land Use Change For Yangcheng County Based System Dynamics

As the most important types of land resources, cultivated land is basic material conditions for the survival and development of human, and it is the basis for guaranteeing food security and land ecosystem stability. In the context of rapid socio-economic development, there would being appearing a phenomena that rapid reduction in the number and quality significantly reduce of cultivated land resources. Cultivated land use change will have a significant impact on humanity’s future development. Thus, study on cultivated land use change is of great importance.This paper use Yangcheng County Shanxi Province for research object, analysis the data on the cultivated land all over the county from1996to2005.Realizing the situation of the cultivated land use change that period, and using Principal Components Analysis and Multi Factor Line Regression method research the drive force of cultivated land use change. And research result is that human activities are the most main influence factors, especially population and economic rapid growth.According to the results of drive force analysis, using System Dynamics method to establish cultivated land use change SD model. And setting natural development mode, rapid economic growth mode and economy coordinated development mode for simulating.simulating results show that the natural development mode is not conducive to economic development, rapid economic growth mode will lead to serious food security problems, economic development mode is the most appropriate long-term development mode in Yangcheng County. The research offer basises of policymaking for rational utilizing cultivated land resources in Yangcheng County. It also made a number of countermeasures for reasonable utilizing cultivated land resources.