Antidumping Warning System Of Risk Assessment In Chemical Industry Of China

With the fast development of foreign trade, China has been forced to face more and more frequent trade friction especially antidumping suits which China has suffered most for 12years. The request for early warning system of antidumping is urgent.Recently, there are some achievements in early warning system of antidumping researches. However, there are some deficiencies in those is using, such as only care about prices and quantity of export products and neglect other important factors because of the difficulties in data collection. Using risk management theory, this paper build an industry anti-dumping risk evaluation early-warning system and vetify with the relation of factors with anti-dumping.This paper confirms the weight of index by using subjective and objective impower methods. The process are as follows:(1). Confirm the warning omen index; (2). Confirm the weight of warning omen index by using analytic hierarchy process; (3). Confirm the warning condition index; (4). Delete the warning omen index that are not apparently related with warning condition by using time relation analysis; (5). Confirm the warning omen index by using a objective impower methods—tandard deviation; (6). Calculate the comprehensive valuation of anti-dumping risk for every year and its spans; (7). Calculate the span of warning condition index and their values; (8).Calculate evalued warning number of every year; (9). Calculate the span of warning number and their real ones; (10). Examine the effect of warning by compare the real value with the evalued ones.The early-warning model is tested through the case of United States anti-dumping investigation on import of the chemical products from china which show the model developed by the paper is effective.