Demand Forecasting Method For Commercial Vehicle Tire Market

Along with the growth of the commercial vehicle market expanding, thescale of China’s tire market for commercial vehicle maintained a rapid paceof development. Commercial vehicles as an important model not onlysupport the transportation and China’s economic development, but also makea positive and important contribution to driving-related industries. China’smacroeconomic development will undoubtedly boost the development of thecommercial vehicle market and stimulate overall demand for commercialvehicle tires. However, at the mean time, due to the global economicintegration and the unbalance of economic progress among China differentregions, provinces and municipalities, commercial vehicles and its tiremarket demand become more and more difficult to predict. The wide range ofproduct specifications and frequent changes of demand in after-salesreplacement market lead to enormous uncertainty of sales forecasting, whichcauses considerable troubles in production planning, operations management,and product distribution. In turn, production cost is increased, which hurts thecompetitiveness of enterprises.Using S company’s influence in the tire industry and its internal data,this thesis develops scientific methods to analyze the OEM and after-salesreplacement markets for commercial vehicle tires through marketing research and data analysis. I employed linear regression and exponential smoothingmethods to link macroeconomic indices and the commercial vehicle volumesuch as production output and ownership of the commercial vehicle market.Then I established a market segmentation model for predicting the entirecommercial vehicle tire market. Finally the forecasting uncertainty is reduced,which can be used to help improve efficiency and reduce costs in supplychain and manufacturing operations.