Research On Model And Method For Urban Transport Passenger Arrival Distribution Of Large-scale Comprehensive Passenger Hub

Passenger integrated transport hub is the key node of passenger transport network, its passenger operations management and organization plays a vital role in the passenger transport network. Passenger arrival discipline is the basis to determine hub scale, hub layout and the scale of transfer facilities. According to the study of passenger arrival law, determine specific flow line configuration of the hub, facilities scale and so on at different time, meeting the needs of hub while avoiding wasting the resources of hub facilities. It can improve the overall operation of hub level, thus promote the common development of passenger dedicated lines and urban transportation. The statistical distribution of passenger arrival is the basis of traffic flow theory, in the areas of traffic simulation plays an important role, systematic study with its very high theoretical value. But now the railway passenger transport hubs in the way of passenger traffic to reach the various laws have not been more systematic research.This study relies on the Ministry of Railways key scientific "Large Terminal Simulation System Research and Development-Passenger Organization Theory and Analysis Techniques", in the context of Beijing South Railway Station, studying urban transport for large passenger arrival terminal distribution models and methods.This study firstly analyze the passenger flow features of the railway passenger large-scale comprehensive passenger hub based on the review study of the domestic and international development, next introduce variety of distribution models and test method in the theory of probability and statistics and analyze various methods of data collection and its advantages and disadvantages. Then by collecting passenger arrival data of various modes of transportation in Beijing South Railway Station by artificial. SPSS, MATLAB and EXCEL analysis Software were used to analyze these data, and use mathematical statistics and theory Statistical analysis its, useχ2 method of inspection for goodness of fit test. The results show Railway passenger hub Passenger arrival law by various modes of transportation meet Negative binomial distribution. Finally, AnyLogic simulation software is used on flow distribution analysis which provides a scientific basis for organization and management of the railway passenger hub.