The Risk Evaluation For The Railway Design Project Based On The Theory Of F-ANP

Because the thesis and the practice of the risk revaluation about the railway design project have many defects, this thesis is in order to display a systematic research on the risk revaluation of the railway design project.This thesis defines the meaning and stages of the railway design project, and describes the concept and characteristics about risk, and introduces the theoretical basis of risk revaluation. We introduce the fuzzy analytic network process(F-ANP), a new evaluation method which is the theory of analytic network process, the theory of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the triangular fuzzy number and a multi-attribute method which is proposed to describe the project risk factors. By the help of analysis about risk, the risk elements are successfully identified by the methods of literature analysis and experts'investigation, and then the risk evaluation index system is accomplished. After clarified the reasons that we choose F-ANP as the evaluation method, we build the model of analysis and evaluation on railway design project based on the analysis of the railway design project's characteristics, combined with well-established risk evaluation index system. In the end, we slice theory into several steps and apply these steps into the operation period of the Beijing to Shanghai highway railway design project which produce a good result, which confirmed the practicability and easy maneuverability of the new method.This thesis is based on a major research project of the Ministry of Railways, "the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway construction project quality management system and risk control technology".