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The Application Of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process In Risk Evaluation Of The International EPC Power Plant Project

Posted on:2014-03-03Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:B Y WenFull Text:PDF
GTID:2269330425952382Subject:Architecture and Civil Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
China gains the power station owner favor quickly in international power plant engineering market by its management capabilities and price advantage, since the price of china power equipment is very cheap. At the same time contractors who want win a share in international power plant engineering market, the key to make survival is quickly adapt the international engineering practices, come up with whole set of program for international project management.International project generally use the EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) contract mode, that most Chinese contractors isn’t familiar, and also limited with management techniques and knowledge of international code, all those may cause risk problem and accident, will finally influence to achieve the objective and harm to the reputation of Chinese contractor. Investigate its reason, although Chinese contractors have some experience in equipment manufacturing, power plant design and construction, but its risk management system and risk assessment techniques is far behind the internationally renowned contractor. As the EPC project require the Contractor carry out the whole process management and bear most of the risk, therefore lack of risk analysis experience, is the main reason of the frequent occurrence of the risk of accidents. So it is very necessary study the International power plant project to under the EPC contract with risk management system and risk evaluation methods, this lead a contractor to avoid the risk of accidents.In This paper, I start my work from the FIDIC contract, first give a summary of risk distribution mechanism and distribution principle of EPC contractor, then researched the risk classification and risk identification method combined with a project management practice to find some normal regular pattern, finally constructed a risk evaluation model. Based on the literature study and questionnaire, I use some risk identification technique find the key risk factors, that is country risk, environment risk, business risk, design risk, implementing the risk, and other key risk factors, and give some analysis. According to the principle of risk index system, take a power station project in Saudi Arabia as case, using the risk recognition technology to find key risk factors and identify the risk stratification, to establishment a hierarchical risk structure. Use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory, assess the loss severity or not, and then applies the analytic hierarchy process to work out the weight of each risk factor, the comprehensive loss degree and project risk weight give a comprehensive evaluation.
Keywords/Search Tags:EPC contract, Power plant project, Risk assessment, Riskidentification, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (F-AHP)
PDF Full Text Request
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