The System Study Based On MSPC Technique For Pre-warning And Diagnosing The Financial Crisis Of Companies

The deepening of financial crisis has gradually become a global problem, so building an effective pre-warning system of financial crisis for enterprises plays an important role.Ever since 60s last century, foreign scholars had began the quantitative study of the pre-warning of financial crisis, but domestic research in this field has just got a start by lacking creation in the research method, and all the present quantitative researches are without an analysis of detailed reasons that why the crisis occurs. Control chart is a statistical technique that uses principles of statistics on probability theory and mathematical theory of statistics on the inspection for the producing process. By studying its demonstration, this paper attempts to use statistical control graph to build the model of pre-warning and diagnosing of financial crisis for companies.Taking the manufacturing industry quoted company in the China's Shanghai and Shenzhen A Share as examples. This paper builds company financial crisis pre-warning model according to the data that come from companies which maintain a healthy financial situation, just draws multivariate statistic processes control chart, and makes pre-warning inspections of the data come from manufacturing industry quoted company in which financial crisis happened for the first time.Besides, drawing single variate statistic process control chart according to every element of the companies that have a healthy financial situation, and taking this as the diagnosis model of why financial crisis occurs in the company, making deep analysis of the ST companies which have sounded early warnings in the (t-1)year, and carrying out the reasons why financial crisis occurs.The consequent shows:The first, the pre-warning model has a very high precision rate when carrying out the early warning inspection toward the financial data from the ST companies.The second, through diagnosing we found the reason why financial crisis occurs is that companies have a weak profit earning ability and growing ability.