The Research On Financial Crisis Early Warning Based On Factor Analysis And Grey Theory

In order to adapt to the opportunities and challenges brought by rapid economicdevelopment more actively, the listing corporation needs to set up the financial crisis andfinancial risk awareness at any time, and take effective measures to resolve the enterprisesfacing the financial crisis. In the thesis based on the meaning of financial crisis, analyzes thefinancial crisis and evolution mechanism, and based on the sensitivity, comprehensivenessand relevance principle, construct the listing corporation’s financial crisis early warning indexsystem from the impact of enterprise net profit and net assets change.At the same time, it usesthe factor analysis method to build model each year in4years, and to determine the thresholdvalue of distinguishing the financial crisis according to the comprehensive evaluation score,to realize the dynamic early warning process based on historical data.Through the calculationof the accuracy of financial crisis, the early warning model built in this paper has a highaccuracy.Finally, combined with the theory of grey system GM (1,1), realises financial crisisprediction analysis of the enterprise, then formulate effective strategic measures for eachenterprise based on the financial crisis warning level.This paper chooses40listed corporation as the research object, a collection of earlywarning indicators of financial crisis data in recent4years, studied to construct, test andapplication of financial crisis early warning model based on SPSS and EXCEL.The following research achievements are obtained through analysis and research:(1) The occurrence of financial crisis is no accident that happened in the process ofenterprise management gradually, it is best to take measures timely and effectively in crisisincubation period;(2) To construct the enterprise financial early warning evaluation index system from twodimensions influence enterprise net profit and net assets change,it can reflect the enterprise’sfinancial operation effect, but also conforms to the National Securities RegulatoryCommission requirements evaluation of enterprise financial capability;(3) The financial crisis early warning model established according to modeling samplesare not only applicable to the modeling sample’s early warning, but also applied to another setof test samples completely different equally effective;(4) Financial crisis early warning model established in different years have a high degreeof accuracy, but with the financial crisis time distance more far, the prediction accuracybecomes lower;(5) Using grey system GM (1,1) to realize the research of warning forecasting for thenext two years, and enhance the practicability of the established early warning model.