Econometric Analysis Of China's Monetary Policy Effect Based On Post-Keynes Monetary Theory

Since the modern Central Bank began to intervene economic movement, the various countries'economists have been always interested in the issue about the effect or transmission mechanism of monetary policy. However, their studies have mainly based on neo-classical, Keynesianism, neo-Keynesianism, and Friedman monetarism. Rarely based on post-Keynes monetary theory to analysis the effect of China's monetary policy, or only carried out theoretical research. However, with development of frontier research of post-Keynes monetary policy, and the presumption and hypothesis are more coincident with reality. So we should base on it to make empirical study, and find out the degree of the effective. Further, reference for the future monetary policy. This paper based on post-Keynes monetary policy to establish a research frame. Our theoretical analysis started from the money nature, based on there is uncertainty in the economic activity and the policymaking environment and individual is limited rational, the money appears in the economic movement as one kind of highly effective system arrangement inevitably, moreover becomes the core:money supply displays endogenous. This paper uses SVAR model aiming at different intervals including long-term and short-term with the economic variables and policy variables. Test result showed that:although the test result of long-term showed out the effect of monetary policy, the inflection point made the result wrong. However cut the long-term into three-stage, and represents different monetary policy, then use SVAR model test different stage separately in order to be more pertinently. The test showed out that the effect of tight-monetary policy is outstanding to the growth rate of GDP and price index, especially effect to price index. The effective of second-stage is less then expectation, it was taking a long time for CPI come out deflation, however, expansionary monetary policy play stabilizing effect on the growth rate of GDP. In the third-stage, revolution in China's bank system, especially, PBC made a series of measures to enlarge loans of state-owned banks, in the other hand, more and more commercial banks are established, meanwhile with interest rate liberalization made transmission mechanism more effective. So the policy in this stage slows down growth rate of GDP and not pushes price index.