Research Of The Financial Crisis Forewarning For The Small And Medium-sized Enterprise

Small and middle-sized enterprise is the basic force of promoting economic development, constructing the principles of market economic and enforcing social stability. The global financial crisis in 2008 led some SMEs, especially the exporting enterprises, into the position of collapse, which undoubtedly made more difficulties to SME's development. As a result, the national public is having enthusiastic discussion about the developing issues for SME. As the SME itself has small scale and there are kinds of problems in its financial management, many of them can't grow continually. Therefore, how to adapt to the changing environments and do the financial crisis preventive work well are the severe and urgent task for the managers.This article starts from the theory of financial crisis forewarning, then the writer analyses the mechanism of the SME's financial crisis forewarning. On this basis, the writer discourses its indicators system and forewarning method in details. Meanwhile, she proposes some ideas and suggestions. The whole paper is divided into six chapters:In the first chapter, the writer discusses the background and study achievements at home and abroad about this topic. Besides, she explains the study purpose, significance, method and technical line briefly.In the second chapter, the writer studies the normative theories and overall introduces the forewarning methods and models from two aspects.From the third chapter, we begin to access to the main contents. In this chapter, the writer lists the definition and features of the SME as well as the features and reasons of financial crisis. Then she gives some prevention measures.The forth chapter is the most important one. Firstly, the writer analyses the function and contents of financial crisis forewarning system. Secondly, she designs the indicator system which she suggests involve the non-financial indicators. At last, the writer selects the efficacy coefficient method which has Delphi calculate the weights as the forewarning method.In the fifth chapter, there is a case. The writer chooses a local SME to apply the financial crisis forewarning method, and it does have effects. Furthermore, she emphasizes that we should focus on the cash flow indicators.In the last chapter, the writer points out her study's shortages and looks into the future about the study direction.