Research On The Forewarning System Of Enterprise Crisis Management

The economy develops rapidly in the twenty-first century. And the environment of market is complex and always changing. There is no enterprise, regardless of their size, business nature and corporate types, can avoid crisis. The same as risk, crisis has become an objective reality. Most enterprises attach importance to the risk and neglect crisis. In recent years, many of the crises have occurred to Chinese enterprises. One by one tragic case highlighted the enterprises must put emphasis on Crisis Management and improve the level of Crisis Management.Crisis Management theory was introduced into china in 1990’. Scholars have studied them and made some achievements. Although the Crisis Management can help companies prevent and deal with crisis effectively in theory, few enterprises put Crisis Management into practice. Why is there such a phenomenon? Do enterprises have not enough sense of Crisis Management? Do the Crisis Management theory and the Crisis Management method have flaws? If they are not good enough, what can we do to improve them?This thesis analyzes the current situation of Crisis Management in Chinese enterprises, and finds out some problems. The reasons which lead to those problems are lack of theoretical guidance and practical experience, poor ability of identifying the crisis, too much focus on cost and some other aspects.This thesis suggests that Chinese enterprises need to increase the sense of preventing crisis and establish appropriate corporate culture, and improve the enterprise Crisis Management system to ensure enterprise security and stability. Crisis forewarning is the most important step of Crisis Management. So, this thesis focuses on the crisis forewarning system.There are two problems on the research of crisis forewarning, the first one is index system is not complete, and another one is crisis forecasting method has some bugs. Both of these problems might induce the result of crisis forewarning is not very accurate. For resolving these two problems, the following two aspects have been studied in this thesis.(1) Construct crisis forewarning systemThe goal of construction of the crisis forewarning system is to detect and identify information about crisis, diagnose whether there has been a crisis, give early warning signals when crisis is coming, provide decision-making information. Crisis forewarning system is mainly divided into three sub-systems, which are information-gathering subsystem, crisis analysis subsystem and the crisis forewarning subsystem.Based on the research of others, a more comprehensive early warning indicators system of crisis is established in this paper. This indicator system includes operation and management of enterprises, enterprise’s core competence, the internal environment of enterprises and the external environment of enterprises.(2) Improve evaluation method of crisis forewarningThe construction of predictive models of the crisis is researched in this thesis. It has made a brief review about Multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. This is a comprehensive forewarning model of crisis which integrated use of AHP and fuzzy mathematics. This kind of model has flaws, such as the computational complexity, complicated operation and so on. Appling catastrophe theory to forecast for enterprise crisis can overcome these shortcomings. Forecast S company’s crisis with both of the models, results are consistent. Different models have different advantages and disadvantages, combination of various models will lead to satisfactory results.This thesis has conducted three innovations.(1) This thesis has analyzed the issue of China’s Crisis Management, clearly pointed out the problems of China’s Crisis Management, the reasons which lead to those problems and what can we do to resolve them.(2) Based on the study of other scholars, this thesis has constructed an enterprise crisis forewarning index system of evaluation which includes four aspects. The first one is the core competitiveness, the second one is enterprise’s operation and management, the third one is internal environment and the last one is external environments.(3) This thesis has advanced a new method for enterprise’s crisis forewarning which is catastrophe theory evaluation method. By picking out some representative indexes, this thesis make empirical study with multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and catastrophe theory evaluation method, then give some advice to enterprise. Small enterprise with limited resources can warn for crisis with catastrophe theory evaluation method, and resource-rich enterprises can warn for crisis with both of multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and catastrophe theory evaluation method.