Simulation Study On Financial Crisis Early-warning Based On The Perspective Of Stakeholders

With the pace of global economic integration quickened,enterprises are meeting the opportunities of reform and development,but also face more intense competition and more complex internal and external environment,most enterprises' primary problem is survival,and then is the development.How to adapt to environmental changes and improve the ability of resisting risks is a realistic and serious problem for business managers.In this situation,the significance of early warning management becomes more and more obvious,the improvement of enterprises' informatization level also laid a good foundation for the establishment of early warning system.Therefore,the early warning and control of corporate financial crisis has become an important subject of academic circle and practical realm.At present,the research results of financial crisis at home and abroad mainly focus on various financial early warning models,which laid a good foundation for the further research.However,most of the traditional financial early warning models focus on the analysis of internal financial data,lack of consider the evolution of the financial crisis process from systematic perspective,therefore,can't found the root causes of corporate financial,and the research results is difficult for business managers to use.In view of this,from the perspective of stakeholders,the paper consider the behavior patterns of stakeholders,deeply analyzes the motivation and evolution path of the financial crisis,and establishes the financial early warning model by using the system dynamics modeling method.Finally,verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method by analysis on application examples.First of all,the paper reviews the current research situation of financial early warning theory at home and abroad,and puts forward the research ideas and methods of this paper.Secondly,reveal the evolution mechanism of financial crisis:deeply discussion the logical relationship between stakeholder behavior and financial crisis,build a bridge between the micro-subject and the phenomenon of emergence of macro-financial crisis,comprehensive and systematic explain the root causes,motivation and the evolution path of the financial crisis.Thirdly,establish corporate financial crisis early warning simulation model in the Vensim simulation environment based on the financial subject.Taking the system dynamics as the tool,analyze the internal and external structure of the enterprise financial system and the causal relationship between the variables,fully display the formation of corporate financial crisis path and evolution process.Finally,take a paper-making enterprises as a sample,applied the simulation model to further verify the scientific and feasibility of research results.Through the simulation model,not only identifies the financial crisis factors,but also provides a reference for the formulation and adjustment of financial policy through the sensitivity analysis.