Study On Dynamic Change Of County-Level Land Use

Nowadays, dynamic change in land use has become one of the frontier topics in the researches on the global environmental change, and studies on the dynamic change case in typical areas are of great significant to understand global environmental change. Therefore, this paper takes Huairen County, a typical hilly area of the central Datong Basin, as the research object. This paper uses the dynamic change models to analyze the spatial-temporal features of land-use dynamic change in Huairen County from 1989 to 2008, based on the recent researches of land use and the database of land use of the year 1989 to 2008. Furthermore, this paper applies mathematical statistical method to investigate the social and economic factors that causes the change of land use and use Markov Model to predict the land use tendency of Huairen County, providing references for the decision-making on sustainable land use and the overall planning on land in the future.The conclusions of this research as follows:(1)The major types of land use in Huairen County are cultivated land and forest; land use degree has increased and there are obvious regional differences in land use change.(2)From 1989 to 2008, the areas of cultivated land, the other land, grass land and garden land had reduced remarkably, while the rest four kinds of land use types increased year by year. As for the spatial pattern, the diversity of land use type had decreased slightly and the convergence extent was relatively high.(3)Using the principal component analysis method, we concludes that economic factor, the development of agricultural technology, readjustment of industrial structures, and the population growth are the main driving force causing the land use change of Huairen County from 1989 to 2008.(4)The prediction of the trend of the land use change shows that the cultivated land, the other land, garden land in Huairen county would on a decreasing trend, among which the cultivated land would be decreasing most substantially. Meanwhile, forest land, residential areas and industrial and mining's land, traffic and transmission land would present a state of increase, among which the forest land would be increasing most obviously; the water conservancy facilities area and grassland area would basically maintain the status quo.