Research On Land Use Changes And Prediction In Yanyuan County Based On CA-Markov Model

Land use change is an important research content of global change and sustainable development.Comprehensive model study is an important means to deeply understand the process,mechanism and environmental impact of land use change.The study of land use change model can not only improve the understanding of the mechanism and causes of land use change,but also predict the rate of land use change in the future,and provide relevant land use advice to the government management department.In this paper,based on China's geological survey projects the asbestos-mian ning "sichuan mineral geological survey(12120114078601)in the" sichuan asbestos-remote sensing geological interpretation "mian ning area projects,through the relevant research literature at home and abroad are discussed,and land use at home and abroad for reference,the processing method,in 2000-2015,yanyuan four land use data for processing,then use the CA-Markov model is the trend of land use change prediction,control and validation,obtained the prediction of land use change,in order to provide technical support for the development of yanyuan.In this paper,yanyuan county is taken as the research area.Based on the geographical data and remote sensing data of this area,combined with cellular automata and markov model,the construction of a comprehensive prediction model for the scale of the mountainous region of the enclosed plateau around the mountain is realized,and the distribution and development trend of land use in this area in the future are predicted.The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Collected at home and abroad about the change of land use classification of remote sensing interpretation and literature,after comprehensive comparison and analysis,find out the suitable for remote sensing feature recognition method,establish a set of rules,adopt the method of object-oriented and supervised classification method to extract respectively,2000,2005,2010,2015 four-stage Landsat image data of land use information,establish a database of land use change.(2)Based on the statistical calculation of land use changes of various land areas during the four periods from 2000 to 2015 in yanyuan county,the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of land use distribution in yanyuan county were analyzed,and the dynamic trend of land use development and change in yanyuan county was obtained.(3)Logistic regression method was used to analyze and establish the relationship between land use and driving factors,and to construct the probability distribution of different types of land.According to different stages of yanyuan the present situation of the change of land use type,land use transfer matrix is constructed,using the CA-Markov model,based on the 2015 and 2020,yanyuan predict land use change,after verification accuracy meets the requirements,and then simulate yanyuan 2025 land demand quantity and space distribution of different land use scenario,then simulated prediction of land use change situation.(4)According to yanyuan important traffic line,economy,population,climate,water distribution,administrative center,major projects and the overall urban planning documents and related data,combined with CA-Markov model to predict land use change in yanyuan county in 2025 after the data,then make a comprehensive comparison and analysis,found the research area of the major problems in the process of developing the land use change,and proposed the corresponding adjustment scheme.