Development Of Chemical Product Price Forecasting And Management System

With the acceleration of global economic integration process, chemical product market competition becomes more intense, and chemical products pricing practices are becoming increasingly complex. In the fierce market competition, in order to enhance the resilience to the market and cope with the risks and opportunities for future market, it has also become increasingly important for the enterprises to make reasonable pricing for its products and to increase efficiency. Therefore, it is urgently needed to build up a price management information system, so as to strengthen price management personnel to understand, analyze and forecast the relevant market price information, and enhance the accuracy of estimating the change trend of the market prices to better serve the work on pricing. In the international market, all the enterprises with competitive advantages attach great importance to the development and utilization of market information resources, and their development is closely linked with the rapid development of information technology. Thus, it has become particularly important to develop a chemical price forecasting and management system based on the marketing characteristics of the chemical products of the company. It can not only work out the market price information data, but also improve the efficiency of price forecasting and management, and effectively manage chemical products pricing.In this paper, we select a suitable chemical price forecasting technology through the analysis of advantages and disadvantages of various types of price forecasting techniques and specific prediction experiments. Crude oil is the foundation of petrochemical products and the prices for all products are determined by it. But at present or in the long run the crude oil is more given a property of financial product, therefore when it comes to the prices of petrochemical products, the prices of naphtha are more directional. Therefore, this paper takes the study specifically on the forecasting of short-term and long-term price of crude oil futures and naphtha. Through analysis of several experiments, we find that Winters model and BP neural network model are more accurate for price forecasting of crude oil futures and naphtha.Based on above researches, this paper takes the requirement analysis of this chemical products price forecasting and management system in terms of objectives, business processes, functional requirements and non-functional requirements. The system is consisted of eight subsystems, such as product pricing, international and domestic prices input, price database, inquiry statistical analysis, pricing in accordance with KPI, price alert, price forecast. And this system can also be seamlessly integrated with legacy chemical and marketing management information system. Then we propose design principles according to identified requirements, and select the tool and technology platform for the system development and operation. We divide the logic architecture of the whole system into three layers in accordance with the decoupling principle and the MVC (Model-View-Control) design pattern: information presentation layer, business application layer, and data storage layer. Subsequently, we conduct a detailed design of the system's Deployment view and data view. Finally, the system is implemented based on .net technology, and passes the functional testing, performance testing and user interface testing.At present, the chemical product price forecasting and management system is in actual action in the management of chemical product price in PetroChina Company Limited. Practice has proved that this system can not only improve the efficiency of price management, but also improve the accuracy of the estimation of the development trend of the market prices. The system, which has achieved the expected goals and requirements, also plays an important role in promoting the value and profits of chemical products. This work also facilitates PetroChina's informatization of chemical products price management to a new higher level.