| With the rapid growth of the national economy in recent years,China's commodity housing industry has made tremendous development. As well as the housing system reform, the needs of commercial residential buildings is becoming hot. However, the housing market is not mature and specifications. In particular, the housing investment is a decision-making process of forecasting supply and demand.Therefore, uncertainty is the basic characteristics of the commercial housing, and it determine that the commercial residential investment is a risky.The residential investment is a large amount.And it's development is a long cycle.Besides,the investment in housing development involves a wide range and many links.All of these have led to housing investment risk is high.Therefore, how to analyze and avoid effectively risks and ensure the success of housing investment will become the primary issue of the real estate enterprises.With a large number of reading related literature and drawing on existing research results, this thesis identify the risk of housing investment and list the major risk of housing investment at this stage.And the thesis adopt the "28 rules" to find the major risk impact on China's commodities,including the market price risk, the interest rate risk capital,the industry demand risk and the operational risk. The thesis describe these risk factors in detail and establish the risk assessment model of housing investment.Also,the thesis use the Standard deviation of net present value to evaluate all kinds of risk of housing investment and point the risk aversion strategy And then it provide the base of risk management.At last with the housing development project of "Jin xiu jiang nan" in Jiangxi Yichun, this thesis analyzes the above of ideas using of the examples and calculate the major impact risk with the system model.At the end of it, it calculate the standard deviation of net present value and evaluate the risk and propose the risk avoidance strategyl in the practical application. |
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