Economic Growth Under Constrain Of Population, Resources And Environment In China

During the past 30 years, China's economic growth has made world-beating achievements, with annual average growth rate of about 9.8%. The economic growth success of China can be attributed to many factors, in the Factor's point of view, abundant labor resources and the population bonus come with it, abundant reserves and Species diversity of natural resource, a vast territory and environmental carrying capacity-in short, the three factors of population, resources, environment, could be seen as our source of sustained economic growth, they have foundation contribution to economic growth.However, in the back of high growth of economy, a big country of large population, resource consumption and pollution as China, under the current mode, Under certain conditions, would China's current growth model be continuous? Since the three basic economic growth factors may also restrict China's economic growth under some conditions. Has China's economy ever been restricted by population, resources and environmental? In the coming decades, would growth be restricted by them? To answer these questions, this paper made a study on the basis of theory of economic growth, population economics, resource and environmental economics research, Constructed an economic growth model with restriction of population, resources and environment variables, and used the time series data of 1983 -2008 to estimated and tested it. The results showed that population, resources and environment variables in the past 30 years, posed a significant restriction on China's economic growths, although they are not as high as the role of capital factor, but still existed.Meanwhile, in order to verify the accuracy of this model, this article also estimated a traditional C-D production function using the same data, the results showed that both the regression coefficients of capital and labor (population) variables, are more consistent with those in the"Restricted Model". After answering whether there existed populations, resources and environment constraints during the past 30 years, this article steped further on the question of whether there would exist the same constraints in future 20 years with a simple forecast using the same model, in the form of comparing the outcome to that from the C-D production function and then concluded: The constraints come from those three factors are evident, and what's more, energy and environmental constraints would be have no significant increasing compared to the trend of the past 30 years, while the labor supply side constraints are more likely.