Researches On The Effect Of Population Aging On Economic Growth

Population factor has a profound influence on every aspect of our world socialdevelopment, such as economy culture、ecological、society and so on. The12th FiveYear Plan is an important period of building a well-off society in China, but also isthe Chinese age structure of the population rapidly aging period, the aging of thepopulation will have a profound impact on China’s economic development. Focusingon China future economic development, we must pay attention to the changes in agestructure of the population, especially the problem of an aging population. This papermainly researchs on the relationship between population aging and economic growth,study on the mechanism of this effect, and use econometric model to capture thiseffect quantitatively. From the provincial level,study the population aging effect oneconomic growth, to understand population aging in a direct impact on the economicdevelopment of our country and the indirect influence objectively andcomprehensively.Using the Cobb-Douglas model, this article embarks from the Solow growththeory, joining the aging and human capital factors, derived the theoreticalmechanism of population aging on the impact of economic growth, further expoundsthe present situation and characteristics of the aging of population in China, and usingprovincial panel data from1995to2010,from an empirical point of view, the twosides analysis, the effects of population aging on economic growth. The empiricalresults show that, the aging of the population will have a negative effect on theeconomic growth of our country, the aging of the population will affect the totaldependency ratio and the natural population growth rate, further through the humancapital, the savings rate and the labor force participation rate of economic growth.The empirical results support the theoretical results, also shows that: the aging of thepopulation, the population growth rate and the rate of depreciation of capital has anegative impact on economic growth; human capital, labor force participation rate,savings ratio will promote economic growth, especially the human capital willsignificantly promote economic growth. Based on the results of theoretical andempirical studies, this paper puts forward the policy recommendations from fiveaspects:economic structure, industrial structure, employment policy, human capital,social security system, providing policy references for relieving the aging of the population.