Study On The Scale Forecast And Layout Of Urban Construction Land Based On Driving Force Analysis

With the development of economy and the acceleration of urbanization process, rationally determining the scale and the layout of urban construction land has strategic importance for our scarce land resources. Adopting mathematical statistical analysis, gray correlation analysis, trend extrapolation and other methods, the study analyzed the land scale and layout for construction of Xintian County in view of the qualitative and quantitative point.By analyzing the driving forces of natural, social, economic and other factors, which have influenced the construction land use changes of Xintian County, the study selected several driving factors. By using SPSS statistical software, making multiple regression analysis of the driving forces of the establishment of construction sites, it gave quantitative study of Xintian County construction land change mechanism.By using Logistic model, the gray system model and regression model, it scientifically predicted a growth rate of the socio-economic factors and a variety of construction land scales of Xintian County (towns land, residential land, an independent mining land, special land, transportation, water conservancy facilities).The result showed that the construction land of Xintian County would be 5806.28 hm2 in 2010 and the number would be 6676.78 hm2 in 2020. According to the current status and future development situation of Xintian County, by using qualitative and quantitative methods, the study gave an adjustment to the level of urban and rural construction land use structure, and the specific adjustment programs were as follows:land for towns would increase 616.49hm2 during the period of land-use planning; independent mining land would increase 215.25 hm2; special land would increase 4.51 hm2; transportation land would increase 365.35 hm2; water conservancy facilities would increase 131.76 hm2; rural residential land would reduce 373.65 hm2.Based on the results of the study, the study got on the role of the significant factors by giving the detail analysis of the current construction land in Xintian County. According to the future development situation of Xintian County, the study put forward the whole development train of thought on the construction land:spatial structure patterns of "one core, two subordinations, and two axes" and the overall structure layout of "one nucleus, two pulses, three-axis, and four areas" in the industrial park.