A Study On Analysis Of Driving Forces And Trend Prediction Of Land Use Changes In Country-level Cities In Western China

Abstract: The use of land refers to people’s activities of employing land resourceswith one or several certain purposes, such as agricultural land for carrying onagricultural production, industrial land for developing industry, housing land fordwelling in, traffic land for public transportation and so on. All of these are involved inthe land resources. With the development of society, people increasingly regard thechange of land use as the principal reason of global changes. Economic development,urbanization and industrialization change the structure of land use. Therefore, it ismeaningful for people to do some research on the relationship between influentialfactors of regional impetus and the trend of land use changes. It not only plays a keyrole in coordinating the balance between regional economy and environment protection,public health and sustainable development, but also helps to improve the public lifestandard and provides a reference for how to use the precious land resources rationally.On the occasion of constructing Tianfu new district, the thesis is mainly about theanalysis of fieldwork with the example of Renshou County which is just one section ofthe new district. Based on a great number of data of land use changes from the year of2002to2011, the thesis will make an explicit analysis on the general trend of changesand the variety of land use in Renshou County, in order to find out the features andpossible problems of land use in Renshou County in the recent decades.Based on the analysis of land structure changes, the thesis mainly uses componentanalysis method to figure out the reasons of land use changes in Renshou. Generally, the reasons are made up of social and economic development, urbanization, demographicchange, adjustment of industrial structure and government policies.Using gray prediction principle, the author will set up the model of trend of landuse and examine the accuracy of the analogue value and actual value. And then, theauthor will try to get a more abstractive, accurate and reliable conclusion of future landuse in Renshou, and figure out the predicted value of land use in the coming years inRenshou without any exceptional circumstances.Finally, according to the findings of land using structure, the driving force factorswhich influence the changes of land use and the future trend of land use, combiningwith the facts of Renshou’s present development, the thesis suggests to protectcultivated land and basic farmland at the same time, normatively integrate ruralresidential land and strengthen the construction of ecological land with the purpose ofensuring the sustainable economic development of Renshou County.