The Study On The Bank Crisis Pre-warning System Based On Balanced Scorecard

Financial Crisis has caused big lose and stern challenges to the Global economy. While Financial innovation avoiding risks and improving the financial market efficiency, it also giving a strong impact to the financial supervision and traditional accounting theory Nowadays, it is hard for the current accounting theory and supervision system to measure, disclose and prevent the increased risk. The old system has disintegrated, but the new system has not been established. At the same time, in order to deal with financial crisis, the government has taken use of activist fiscal and proper easier monetary policies, which directly led to the number of the financial deficits and the money supply still on the rise. While the large-scare economic measures stimulate a relatively rapid growth of fixed-asset investment on the one hand, it reinforce structural inconsistencies on the other, and it directly led to the rapid surge in domestic credit. and as the price of Real and other assets within bulged, the pressure of the RMB exchange rate increased, Macroeconomic environment has posed a severe test to the Chinese financial system especially the bank of china that developing quickly. So, this paper try to analysis the Structure of the China commercial bank's Early Warning system based on the framework of the Balanced Scorecard, but not in the he traditional mode of banking supervision and crisis early warning This paper has important practical significance and theoretical innovation. It can improve our ability to prevent the risk of banks, thus strengthen the stability of our financial system.This paper taking the structure of the China commercial bank's early warning system as the research objects. The first chapter mainly introduces the background and significance of selecting the topic, and reviews the correlative research then discusses the ideas and methods of the study. The second chapter firstly sums up the reason that why the bank crisis happens and the experience and characteristics of bank crisis alarm, then analysis the shortcoming of the bank crisis alarm system, at last analysis the feasibility and Superiority of using BSC in commercial banks in China. The third chapter firstly sets up the basic framework of the commercial bank Alarm system based on the Balanced Scorecard, then designs the Early Warning index sign system,at last the method of AHP is used to determine judgment matrix and calculate the weighting of each guide line, then the index value mapping approach using to estimate the risk of each index and overall. The forth chapter is the Empirical Test of the above bank crisis alarm system. it calculates the Warning status and warning degree of bank crisis that happened in sample banks each year, then analysis the related crisis and developing trend that the Early-warning Modal presented to see if it matched the fact, then tests whether the model can provide timely and accurate information or not. And then gives suggestion to the related weak link.The main place of innovation of this paper is that it is the first time that using BSC theory to Bank Crisis Early Warning System. The establishment of the five alarm subsystem:financial, customer, internal processes, learning and growth, the external environment include the entire production process of bank risk; and the paper sets up the alarming index which based on the reasons that the crisis happened, so it can ensure the model provide timely and accurate information.