Strategic Crisis Early Warning Research

Theory and practice are always studying enterprise how to manage crisis to facilitate enterprise standing in the complex and changeable and cruel fierce economy environment. However, many enterprises have not ability to control effectively crisis earlier when it happened. It is so easy to fall into marshes and can't recover again. Crisis contains itself the root of the failure as well as gestates the seeds of success. Under the background, enterprises must strengthen awareness of crisis management and establish scientific system of crisis warning early. They should regain from passiveness to initiative and destroy crisis nipped in the bud or calmly face to defuse the crisis.Firstly the thesis illustrated research background, significance, present situation of domestic and foreign research, the basic framework of thesis as well as research methods and features, then studying some relevant theoretical basis. The content of the thesis is key point shortly. That is using BSC theory from strategic height to analyze crisis, setting up the system of the crisis index warning early, determining the model of crisis warning early. When we establish the system of indexes, not only considering the traditional early-warning indicators of financial crisis, but also considering the non-financial crisis early-warning indicators, forming whole new strategic indicators system including 46 indicators, covering two dimensions of strategic perspective and seven dimensions of BSC expanded and developed, total nine, including the establishment of strategies, the implementation of the strategic, financial benefits, operation of assets, compensation ability, ability to grow, customers layer, human resources and information resources and R&D. When we form the model of crisis early warning, learning the soul of practice results from the theory of crisis past and strategic BSC, with investigation procedures of Delphi method, using factors analysis and hierarchy analysis, using SPSS statistic software to process samples and data. So we can choose six key factors from the 26 key indicators early warning selected (including the strategic factors, financial support factors, internal operating factors, the level of growth factors, the customer factors and learning and innovating factors). We should row them according to their importance and determine impacting of factors of crisis, building up the Model Based on multiple analysis of enterprise crisis early warning, and then we should check them. In addition we should explain whether the models have certain accuracy and reliability or not. In the end, the thesis concluded the study progress and pointed out the weaknesses of research process and put forward research prospects.