Study On The Prediction Of Regional Land Use Change Based On RS And GIS-A Case Study In Huishan Area Of Wuxi City

With the growing urbanization and development of economy of Huishan area , how to forecast the area of each type of land accurately becomes an important aspect of land use research. On the base of the former achievements, using RS and GIS technique, land use classification system of Huishan area was established in this paper. The temporal and spatial variation of land use and land utilize variation tendency was analyzed systematically and synthetically in this paper, with the results given below:(1)According to the actual conditions of Huishan area,three land use types (agricultural land, construction land and unutilized land)were established in this paper. Furthermore, agricultural land was divided into cultivated land, garden plot, forest land and others and the construction land was divided into urban and rural construction land, land for transportation and water facilities. In terms of the theoretical basis, land use database that in accordance with the characteristics of Huishan area was set up to provide an important data foundation for application of land use information.(2)With the supporting of GIS technique, the dynamic evolution of land use change was analyzed from the aspects of quantity, structure, utilization and spatial. The results, which had been gotten through comparing of temporal-spatial characteristics of land use change from 2005 to 2009, indicated that construction land increased 1211.18ha in the four years and cultivated land, garden plot and unutilized land decreased 756.56ha, 249.34ha and 364.25ha at the same time.(3)Based on the initial state probability and the condition transition probability matrix of land use change that determined through the spatial analysis, the paper proposed a Markov model, which was used to forecast the tendency of land use change in Huishan area. The simulation results indicated that from 2009 to 2013, the area of construction land would increase constantly with a lower speed and the agricultural land and unutilized land, which would be mainly transformed into construction land, would decrease gradually. In 2009, the agricultural land, construction land and unutilized land occupy 45.71%, 45.23% and 8.07% of total acreage of the research district separately, while in 2013, the agricultural land, construction land and unutilized land will occupy 42.31%, 49.62% and 8.07% of total acreage of the research district separately.