Analyzing Land-use Change And Trend In Pudong New Area With Markov And CLUE-S Model

As a typical coastal riverfront development belt, Pudong New Area (PNA) takes the significant responsibility of serving the city transformation of Shanghai and maintaining the municipal ecological safety. With the found of PNA in 1990, people have witnessed increase of Gross Domestic Productivity (GDP) from 8.392 billion to 644.868 billion, the portion of build-up area from 15.92% to 57.05%. By the end of 2014, the increasing population is 5.409 million. Under the pressure of increasing population and rapid development of economy and urbanization, the land-use change should achieve the goal of zero-increase of built-up area to meet the need of a new pattern of land-exploitation raised by the government of Shanghai. The final goal of built-up area was set at 3226 km2 by the government of Shanghai and the boundary of land-use programming of PNA will be constrained, forcing the transformation of city development by the pattern of utilization of land resource, which means that the portion of built-up area is allowed to reduce but not allowed to increase. In hence, the future situation of land-use should be reconsidered by PNA to convert the idea of land-use programming and utilization of land resource.The aim of this study is to find out the problems of the PNA development, and identify a model which is fit for the sustainable development in this area. The study is performed based the Landsat remote sensing images of 1989,1995,2000,2005,2009 and 2013, which are covering the whole PNA. Emphasis is on the analyzed of land use area, spatial distribution, development and evolution in of PNA based on object-oriented classification methods and GIS technology. We do the simulations using markov model and CLUE-S model based on different developing stages of PNA to predict the land use change in 2020 under different scenarios. The results are compared with land use planning of that year. Finally we conclude that:(1) The archived medium-resolution remote sensing data is useful in the time series studies of land use/land cover. The object-oriented classification method and GIS spatial analysis method are efficient for the analysis of land use evolution.(2) Since the establishment of the PNA, the change of land use can be described in three stages:1). Slow development pattern from 1989 to 1995; 2). Booming development pattern of coastal area from 1995 to 2005; 3). Stable development pattern from 2005 to 2013. Spatially, land use are in the stage of imbalanced development all the time-the serious imbalance between unban and suburb and the land use can be divided in three pattern, the north of Huangpu River, the middle of Pudong, and Nanhui new city and the beach.(3) Based on the foregoing land use model the Markov model is able to predict the number of land use change at different stages, while CLUE-S is able to predict the space change of land use at different stages. The combination of the above tow models is excellent to provide useful suggestions for land use planning, such as in the area of PNA.(4) The modeling result is compared with the city planning of PNA in 2020, which shows that, i under the developing pattern of 1989～1995, the model shows that human disturbance is relatively small, so there is not significant change in 2020, as a result the construction land can not meet urban development requirement; ii under the developing pattern of 1995～2005, the model shows a high degree of land development and utilization, which will result a big lose of coastal wetland in the future. The result show a serious imbalance in the development from north to south; iii under the developing pattern of 1995～2005, the model shows significantly land use change in the in land area. Coastal wetland converted to building land slowly. The construction area is large, which tend to occupy a large amount of farmland.The land use should pay attention to repair offshore and coastal wetlands, balance farmland and construction land, guarantee basic cultivated land line, adhere to the development of the ecological city, reasonably plan landscaping, and enhance the level of intensive utilization of land.