The Real Estate Market Price Forcasting Method Based On The Gray System Theory

With the development of real-estate market, the risk of the real-estate industry has become a urgent problem. It has been a very important thing to give a well-marked consciousness of real-estate-price fluctuation under the help of scientific method.As an important component of the real estate market, residential real estate market is not only an indicator of government's macro management and control, but also the vital interests of most consumers that the majority of community concern. This paper firstly analyses the real estate costs, the price mechanisms of incremental houses and stock houses, as well as the factors that affect the total demand of houses and the market structural. Reasons for the rigidity of pricing, the spatial structure of cities and growth patterns of urban space are also explored, along with the real estate location theories, and effect of location factors on the property prices, and the relationship within real estate pricing system. Based on these researches, factors that cause the fluctuations of housing prices and the related movement law are explored.Markov model is the main research tool and method that we use in this paper. A brief introduction of gray system theory is presented. Then a detailed description is given on the application of gray correlation analysis and GM (1,1)-Markov model. After that, an empirical study is done on the downtown residential real estate market by using the previously mentioned models. Conclusion is drawn at last.