The Analysis And Forecast Of Potential Grain Production In Northeast Area Of China

Northeast area is an important commercial production grain and export bases in China,which has a good condition for grain and a stable supply ability in grain. We can say Northeast area has made outstanding contributions to national grain safety and plays an unchanged part in guarantee system. Therefore, the analysis and forecast of potential production of grain in northeast area have a positive research meaning.Firstly, combining with climate, policy and production input factors; for each province, this paper established respectively the AHP structure of potential grain production of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning province, calculated the contribution ratios of factors and the comprehensive index of potential grain production of every area. So, we can sort areas of the same province, analysis the reason of low potential grain production and adjust structure of grain planting.With regard of the current development of grain in northeast area, the paper has set up grey-MarKov, logistic and combination forecast model of per unit area yield, and forecast respectively per unit area yield of rice, wheat, maize and soybean in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning province and eastern four leagues. For different areas and grain kinds, the paper took use of the model, which has the minimum error. Finally, through calculation and planning area of product, all localities crop production in the next five years, the Heilongjiang 2015 grain output will reach 521 billion kilograms of grain production by 2015, Jilin province for potential prediction 306.19 billion kilograms, compared with 2007, increased 57.7 million kilograms. In Liaoning in 2015 grain production potential prediction for 204.53 billion kilograms, grabbing au area 2015 grain production potential prediction for 24.6 billion kilograms. Forecasting results and the provinces of grain production planning data are basically the same.Paid more attention to real-time dynamic, the paper built a programming model whose objective function is the total benefit of Hundred Billion Grain Production Engineering of Heilongjiang Province, Fifty Million Live Pigs'Large-scaled Culture Engineering and Ten Million Tons Milk Engineering. Constraint conditions are basic requests of the three big engineering. That is, at the prime of the realizable of three big engineering, according to Chinese present cultivated lands, the paper have a reasonable distribution for the cultivated area of grain crops and forage crops. By research and calculation, the three big engineering can come true.The paper's basic data come from every town of northeast area. Combined with the mathematic models, the paper can analysis and predict the potential grain production more accumulate. Therefore, we can take measures ahead, adjust grain planting structure and make grain safety.