Mark In Carbon Emissions In The "tunnel" Mode Study

At present, the global climate change which charactered by global warming has becoming a great threat to human's survival and development, and it draws universal attention from international community. Under the circumstances of global climate change and domestic energy saving and pollution reduction, how to make use of technology backwardness, system innovation and international climate cooperation to to lower the peak of carbon emissions curve, i.e., academialy called realizating carbon emissions' "tunnel" model path under the precondition of economic development and improvement of livelihood, currently has become the most important academic topic, of course,it is the main topics of this thesis. Obviously, in the economic development process to realize "dematerialized" and "carbide, realizing the sustainable development of the human society sustainable existence is the precondition that the advanced stage of economic development. This phase of realization, must achieve energy efficiency through technical innovation, and enhance renewable energy to improve the energy structure, Through system innovation, establish and perfect the reducing greenhouse gas emissions constraints and incentive mechanism, Change human consumption patterns and spiritual concepts and so on a series of measures to realize the implementation of economic environment and human resources development of harmonious society, and academic research in practice before the prospective study has the vital significance.This paper can be divided into six parts:The first part is preface, mainly introduces the background, significance, structure, research methods and the mainly innovative points of the paper.The second part is theory review part, mainly about domestic and foreign scholars in environmental kuznets curve, carbon emissions driving-factors decomposition and predicting carbon emissions data in the future. The purpose of this patr is to track the international and domestic academic circle in the latest development condition, absorbing past scholars studied in this respect for outstanding achievements in this paper writing, provides the basic theory, methods, tools, etc support. Environmental kuznets curve as the first to blavatsky economic growth and environmental quality changes associated with the research paradigm, it puts forward, development and theoretical defects on the development of the theory of late play an important guiding role and enlightenment. Carbon dioxide as economic development, energy consumption, but also one of the products of the measure of environmental quality one of important indexes, nature also can be attached to the environmental kuznets curve of the research category Bates. This part of home and abroad about environmental kuznets curve.linzi research results are summarized and found "environmental kuznets curve is just a objective phenomenon, rather than a necessary laws.Decoupling theory, on one hand,it is the latest development of environmental kuznets curve on the quantification, making the way of economic growth and environmental benefits in different countries can be quantitatively compared; on the other hand, in a certain extent provideing theory basis for developing countries on carbon emissions reduction because it based on the relative strength index rather than absolute total carbon emissions. However, both of them are merely about qualitatively and quantitatively description the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality,neither of them shows clearly influencing factors or the manner of these factors, let alone the quantification analysis of each factor. In recent years, with people pay more and more attention to climate change and carbon emissions problems, research on carbon driving-factors decomposition gradually increase, which are the basis to formulate rational policies on emissions reduction and development measures of low-carbon economy. Nowadays, scholars from worldwide communly use LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method, hereinafter referred to as LMDI) to analyse driving-factors.But most of the domestic analysis are about carbon emissions from China's overall or partial industry, lacking concrete research on different provinces, so the suggestions lacks the corresponding pertinence and operability for directing abatement work. Therefore, In this paper, large guanzhong region is taken as an example,which has a certain innovation and application value. Given each province is different in population scale, industrial structure, technical level, energy resources endowment etc, the future situation forecastvast on carbon emissions is especially important to formulate rational reduction policy. Fortunately,past scholars' research provides a valuable reference on prediction model and parameter function,the last part of the theoretical overview also make some introduction to it.The third part make an overview of overall features of carbon emissions from 2001～2008 years in Largeguanzhong region.Beaides.the contrast and analysis are made among Largeguanzhong region,nationwide and a portion of the eastern provinces.In the fourth part of the thesis, LMDI and Kaya indentity are used to decompose driving-factors of carbon emissions in Largeguanzhong region from 2001 to 2008, analyzing the different effect of each factor on the carbon emissions'change. The influencing factors of carbon emissions in this paper include the regional economic output, industrial structure change, population change, energy efficiency improvement,ect. The purpose of this part is to provide empirical basis for suggestions to be put forward with pertinence.In the fifth part.forecast of carbon emissions is made in different situations in Largeguanzhong region in the coming 40 years, the influencing factors including different economic growth speed, industrial structure, population, urbanization rate, energy consumption structure, optimization of technological progress, policy executive power, and the cooperation of energy saving and emission reduction, analyze the impact of different emission path. In addition,based on China's promise in Copenhagen climate conference to the international community,that is by 2020 carbon emissions intensity will drop 40%～45%compared with 2005. By adopting the carbon intensity index and the principle of national overall emissions cost minimum, calculate distribution of carbon emissions in four provinces in Largeguanzhong region,which can be related refered by functional department to make appropriate policy.Finally, the article puts forward some suggestions on energy conservation and emission reduction and development low-carbon economy of Largeguanzhong area. Also, in the end of this article some summary is made.In addition, the paper points out the shortcomings and research direction in the further.