Sustaining Economic Growth On The Premise Of The Provinces Of Carbon Emissions And Decoupling Strategy In Our Country

Since the reform and opening up, especially into the21st century, China’s economic appeared a new round of rapid growth, such as large-scale development of the steel, chemical and other heavy industries. The significant feature of this phase is the high energy consumption and high emission. In2005, China’s total GDP accounted for4.95%of the world, but energy consumption accounted for14.95%, Carbon emissions accounted for18%of the world’s total, became into the second carbon emissions country in the world after the United States. In2008, China’s carbon emissions more than United States ranked first. It is imperative to reduce our carbon emissions. At the Copenhagen World Climate Change Conference in2009, our government has proposed emission reduction targets:by2020, China’s unit gross domestic product (GDP) of carbon emissions decreased by40%-45%. It shows China’s determination. China’s emission reduction target could be achieved while also ensure economic growth, has become the main problem at this stage.Under the guidance of technical economics, resource and environmental economics, sustainable development and systems theory, the paper used statistical software (Excel) and geographic information systems(GIS).And it based on dates of eight economic zones and30provinces from1995to2009.Then through Finishing literature and data collection, on the basis of field investigation and substantial evidence, Environmental Kuznets Curve of carbon emissions, environment learning curve of carbon intensity are proposed and built in various provinces. And I analyzed and evaluated the decoupling of the carbon emissions and economic development. According to Environmental Kuznets Curve of carbon emissions, environment learning curve of carbon intensity and decoupling theory, analysis the next decade China’s economic development and carbon emissions.Through in-depth analysis and comprehensive study, the important results are showed:(1) The economy of our country increases fast after the reform and open, and our country’s carbon emissions rapid increased. Through the Environmental Kuznets Curve, environmental learning curve, analysis of the relationship between China’s carbon emissions, carbon intensity and per capita GDP. Environmental Kuznets curve of Carbon emissions was inverted U-shaped, and have not yet reached the inflection point,carbon emissions continue to increase along with economic development. Carbon intensity with per capita GDP growth was exponential attenuation, correlation coefficient of which is mostly above0.90.(2)"Decoupling" concept is clearly expressed that expect the society to use less than the previous material consumption and generate more than the economic wealth in the process of economic development. Analysis on the decoupled state to China’s carbon emissions and economic development, the decoupling of China’s state can be divided into five stages. And use decoupling strategies to predict the next decade China’s carbon emissions decoupling state, showing that China’s economic growth will significantly reduce carbon emissions and economic decoupling will long remain weak decoupling state.(3) According to the research methods of the State Council’s Economic Development Center can be divided into our country for the eight integrated economic area, each economic region has its own advantages for development. Evaluation of the decoupling of carbon emissions and economic development, decoupling of each economic region is varied. Based on a linear regression model to predict the trend of economic development of each economic region over the next decade, found that the future economic zone is still mainly a weak decoupling state.(4)From timeangle, the carbon emissions of provinces with economic development is increasing year by year, carbon emissions per thousand production value declined with the economic development and improvement of technical level. With economic development, the state gradually moving towards the weak decoupling of the state. From space perspective, the eastern coastal economically developed provinces of carbon emissions and economic decoupling has stabilized, the slow-down in growth rate of carbon emissions, central and western provinces,particularly large amount of energy consumption provinces. Carbon emissions had a significant increase in the process, and economic decoupling change of state(5) Application of environmental learning curve decomposition China’s carbon emission reduction targets, found that if the provinces economic growth remains7.5%, China’s overall carbon intensity decreased by36.2%in2020, will have the opportunity to achieve carbon emission reduction commitments.(6) Based on a linear regression model to predict the economic development of China’s provinces the next decade, found that the carbon emissions and economic development of the future provinces remain weak decoupling state, but there is links to the expansion of development trends, the need to control strengthen the carbon emissions.