Research Of The Relationship Between Industrial Structure And Carbon Emissions From The View Of Ecological Civilization

With the rapid development of economy, resources and environment problems is becoming the focus of public attention. The report of the eighteenth national congress of the CPC shows that, "We should remain committed to the basic state policy of conserving resources and protecting the environment and strive for green, circular and low-carbon development". It is generally assumed that accelerating the transformation of economic development and optimizing industrial structure is the main way to build a resource-conserving and environmentally friendly society. But in the process, it is also important to find the problems of industry development as well as adopting pertinent instruments. This paper takes China’s 30 provinces as a sample, using production matrix to quantitative evaluate its industrial structure. Through the analysis of material and energy flows within the system, this paper also estimates the internal structure and overall efficiency of industry system as well as the present situation of industrial structure and carbon emissions. On that basis, this paper explores the relationship between industrial structure and carbon emission even the future trends, and puts forward the corresponding optimization path after analyzing the industrial structure adjustment, using Spearman rank correlation and ANN method.Results of the evaluation based on production matrix of industrial structure shows that:(1) There is much difference between sample provinces and municipalities of its industrial system, which divided in rings around the space where high is the east and low is the west. (2) The provinces with highly industrial system efficiency distributed in coastal areas, and highly system path length region concentrated in the central area. (3) North China is strongly depend on the resources industry, and the provinces with substantial agricultural resource rely on agriculture more. Meanwhile, the eastern region’s processing manufacturing industry are dominant, as well as the service industry in the western regions occupy a high proportion.According to the current situation of carbon emissions analysis results:(1) Carbon emission aggregate decreased from north to south and east to west. (2) Carbon emission efficiency showed significant zonal distribution in space, lowly in the north area of yellow river and highly in the south. (3) The fact that area intensity division for total carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity is not consistent, leads to the differences in level between region carbon emissions.Research of the relationships between industrial structure and carbon emissions indicates that: (1) Industrial scale expansion will lead to the increase of carbon overall emissions and the reduction of carbon emissions per unit GDP. (2) In the process of exploiting and utilizing resources with high strength, the marginal cost is increasing and the marginal utility is decreasing. (3) By the current technology level, lengthwise extend of industry chain will lead to the decrease of carbon overall emissions, but sidewise extend will lead to the opposite and increase the marginal cost of reusing resources. However, the above conclusion may not be correct with the technology advances in future.Finally, according to the relationships between industrial structure and carbon emissions along with the simulation of evolution trend in future, this paper analyzed the current direction and reforms of industry structure regulate, meanwhile, offering some relevant suggestions, which provides the corresponding theoretical support of ecological civilization construction.