Power Communications Business Degree Of Risk Assessment Methods

Electric power communication network is an guarantee in ensuring the security and stability of the grid.The reliability and safety of the electric power communication network has been paid more and more attention becoming a hotspot in the electric power communication.By now, a lot of achievements have been made in the related fields both at home and abroad, but most focused on the evaluating of the reliability and risk of the network itself, the research on the evaluating of the,power communication business is few. The main purpose of power network is to ensure the reliable operation of the power network.So the study in this paper focuses on the risk of the power communication businesses.Reference on the definition of risk in the risk management theories, the definition of risk in this paper is "The loss of the power network may be caused by the interruption of the power communication businesses". By analyzing, the relevant factors of the risk of the power communication businesses are the probability of the interruption of the power communication businesses and the the loss may be caused by the interruptions.The affection on the probabilities of the power communication business interruption caused by the ways of protection of the business is discussed in the paper too, and also the conception of business importance is proposed through the analyzing of the types of communication businesses to evaluate the loss which may be caused by the interruption of the business quantitatively.Reference on the existing methods of evaluating of risk, the risk evaluating method of the communication business is proposed.And based on the risk of the communication business,the method of evaluating risk of transmission fiber is proposed.At last, three typical network models is used to be analysed, and proves that the results is correspond with the facts, and the methods can be used to evaluate the risk of the business quantitatively, and to evaluate the equilibrium condition of the distribution of the businesses.The paper include propose the concept of business importance and analyzes quantitatively, propose the probability of the interruption of the business should be calculated combined with the probabilities of the transmission fibers and the ways of protection of the communication business because the loss could be caused only when the business is interrupted by the interruptions of the transmission fibers, propose the methods of evaluating risk of businesses an fibers, propose two conceptions which are the mean and the standard deviation of risk of communication fibers to evaluate the equilibrium condition of the distribution of the businesses quantitatively, compare between different schemes of businesses assignment, guide the optimization of the assigning of the businesses.