Research On The Measurement Of The Contribution Of China’s Civil Aviation Industry To Economic Growth

As one of the components of China’s integrated transportation system,the civil aviation industry plays an important role in linking traditional ground transportation modes and improving the integrated transport networks.The civil aviation industry is not only a basic industry of the national economy,but also has the nature of a service industry.Through the production of air passenger and cargo transportation services,it can have a pulling and driving effect on the national economic sectors upstream and downstream of the industry chain.Therefore,the level of development of the civil aviation industry is related to the sustainability of China’s national economic growth and the stability of social development,but at present,there are few domestic studies on quantifying the contribution of the civil aviation industry to economic growth,and they are not comprehensive enough.As China’s economic development has entered a new normal stage,it is of great significance to study the contribution of the civil aviation industry to economic growth and to guide the macro layout and development of the civil aviation industry in the new period of economic development.The specific research elements of the thesis are:Firstly,the concept of civil aviation and economic contribution was defined and the current development of civil aviation was analysised.The mechanism of the contribution of civil aviation to economic growth was explored and the scope of economic contribution of civil aviation was defined.Direct economic contribution was the value of products and services directly created by the production and operation of civil aviation;Indirect economic contributions included the forward push contribution of the civil aviation industry through forward linkage with downstream industries,and the backward pull contribution through backward linkage with upstream industries,and induced economic contribution through the role of consumption multipliers.The indirect economic contribution included the forward push contribution through the forward linkage with downstream industries,the backward pull contribution through the backward linkage with upstream industries,and the induced economic contribution through the consumption multiplier effect.Secondly,by constructing an evaluation index system for the development of the civil aviation industry and economic growth,a comprehensive evaluation index of the two was measured and a vector autoregressive(VAR)model was constructed.The dynamic interaction between the civil aviation industry and national economic growth was analysised by means of Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition.From the analysis results,it can be seen that the promotion of economic growth is an indispensable factor in the development of the civil aviation industry,and the development of the civil aviation industry is also an important thrust for economic growth,but the promotion effect of the development of the civil aviation industry on economic growth has not yet been fully released.Thirdly,in order to quantify the specific contribution of the civil aviation industry to economic growth,the economic contribution of China’s civil aviation industry from 2002 to2017 was measured based on an input-output model.The industrial correlation analysis of the civil aviation industry showed that the pulling effect of the civil aviation industry on the national economic was mainly manifested in the pulling effect on the secondary industry,and the driving effect was mainly manifested in the direct driving effect on the tertiary industry and the indirect driving effect on the secondary industry;At this stage,the civil aviation industry has became an important pillar industry in the national economy,with its pulling and driving effect on the national economic being higher than the social average.The analysis of the economic contribution of the civil aviation sector showed that the overall economic contribution of the sector was on an upward trend,but from 2012 to 2017,the increase in the forward push contribution slowed down and the decrease in the backward pull contribution increased.Therefore,in this new era of economic development,the economic contribution of the civil aviation industry still needs to be further improved.Finally,the thesis combines the results of the above empirical analysis to propose countermeasures to enhance the economic contribution of China’s civil aviation industry.