Based On Areas Of Our Analysis Of Parking Demand Forecast Study

Based on the analysis of research in domestic and foreign motor vehicle parking demand forecast, this article establish the parking demand forecast model based on the analysis of the land location.First, researching the status of parking supply and demand in the city from the analysis of total amount, spatial distribution, time distribution and structure distribution in parking facilities.The analysis shows that most cities have parking problems in varying degrees,such as the lack of parking facilities, unreasonable spatial distribution, unreasonable time distribution and unreasonable structure distribution in parking facilities. And summarizing the crux of the imbalance in parking supply and demand.Next, from researching the factors of the parking demand forecast and existing and typical models of the parking demand forecast,and contrasting the applicabilitier of these models, the analysis shows that it is irrational to neglect the influence of the project location to the parking demand lack of consideration.So this article research the existing location theoretical models,select the factors which are closely associated with the parking demand,such as geography factor,social factor,traffic factor,parking facilities and public transport,and establish a new location theoretical model,in order to express the location predominance of projects,and then, based on the parking generation rate model, lead into the location theoretical model, the growth rate of urban motor vehicle, the parking saturation and parking berth velocity in peak time,to establish the parking demand forecast model based on the analysis of the land location.Finally, take Kunming as the example, testing and verifying the model. Partitioning the area of Kunming, respectively selecting a project from each area. Predicting to get the number of parking berth for various projects from determining the parameters and solving the location theoretical model and the parking demand forecast model.Then from comparatively researching the number of prediction and the actual values from the total of parking berth, parking saturation and parking berth velocity, this article get the conclusion,that is the phenomenon that parking berth is insufficient or excessive can be alleviated, the parking saturation and parking berth velocity are in a more reasonable range, and the model is practical.