Research On Parking Demand Of Small And Medium-sized Urban Complex Based On Parking Space Sharing

With the development of China’s economy and the acceleration of urbanization,the number of urban motor vehicle ownership continues to increase,and the number of parking berths required by cities rises sharply.As a functional intensive building group,urban complex tends to generate and attract more parking demands.Urban complex has problems of unbalanced parking supply and demand and low utilization rate of parking resources,which is mainly reflected in the unbalanced use of time and space.Building land with different nature and function has obvious differences in parking demand time.The existing complex parking demand prediction methods are mainly aimed at the complex of large cities and have some defects.The phenomenon that travelers visit multiple functional land without taking into account one parking behavior has certain errors in the parking demand prediction results.Based on the research of domestic and foreign scholars on parking sharing and parking forecasting methods,this paper conducts an in-depth study on parking demand forecasting based on parking sharing in small and medium-sized urban complexes.Firstly,the parking characteristics and parking behaviors of the single functional land area in the urban central area were investigated and analyzed,and two basic preconditions for the implementation of the parking sharing strategy were obtained,namely,the difference of parking demand time and the acceptability of walking distance to the destination.Secondly,the existing complex parking demand forecasting methods and models are studied and analyzed.Combined with the experience of large urban complex forecasting model,the parking generation rate model is selected as the basic model,and factors such as location condition,private motor vehicle ownership,public transport travel proportion and parking sharing benefit reduction are taken as the adjustment factors of the parking demand forecasting model.A parking demand forecasting model for small and medium-sized urban complex based on berth sharing was established to improve the parking demand forecasting method.Finally,two complex areas in Zhoushan City were selected to predict the number of parking space demand in 2025 to verify the feasibility and science of the model.