Artillery Weapons And Equipment Cost Estimation Methods

With the continuous development and the military widely application of science and technology, the increasing cost of weapon equipments has become an unbearable burden more and more in each country. It is the same as other weapon equipments' cost that artillery equipments' cost also has the trend of overspending. So we must estimate the LCC (Life Cycle Cost) of artillery equipments with scientific methods, so that we can improve the efficiency of the acquisition and using cost. The emphasis of this thesis just is to study the methods used in estimating process of artillery equipments' cost.This thesis takes cost estimating of domestic artillery weapon equipments as research object. On the basis of widely studying and summarizing the worldwidely existed achievements of theoretics and technologies of cost estimate, and according actual needs of the task, this paper establishes a suit of procedure for domestic weapon equipments' LCC estimate. Then we provide the cost model for each phase of artillery equipments' life cycle. After particularly expatiating upon Parametric Cost Estimating methodology, it elaborately discusses a series of problems that are in relation to Parametric Cost Estimating methodology, and provides corresponding solutions to those problems with giving some applied instances, and then I makes some improvements for those methods. Furthermore, this paper brings forward some advices for cost estimate at present situation. Finally, with the problems being solved in the process of programming, I develop a suit of applications software for cost estimate of artillery weapon equipments based on users' demands.The main jobs of this thesis are as follows:(1) Based on widely studying and summarizing the existed achievements of LCC estimate, I provide the cost model for each phase of artillery equipments' life cycle, and bring forward a suit of cost estimating procedure that adapts to cost estimating of domestic artillery weapon equipments.(2) After analyzing the problem of outliers and multicollinearrity in rude data of the artillery equipments, I apply the methods to solve those two problems in the actual process of cost estimate.(3) It elaborately discusses the problem of selection of independent variables in cost modeling. Furthermore, it brings forward a new method of selection of independent variables, and that method has been verified in the process of actual application.(4) It improves the parametric cost estimating modeling used n-degree cumulative residual error model, and it solves the problem of fewer samples in substance.(5) Based on Windows platform, I develops applications software for cost estimate of artillery equipments to meet users' demands, and successfully solves the problem that how to call Matlab in C++Builder.