Daxie Container Terminal Construction Scale Study

Ningbo port, identified as one of the four international deepwater transshipment ports in china's mainland given priority in development and construction, is an important part of Shanghai International Shipping Center. The port, having outstanding geographical location with deep water, calm seas and vast expanse of waters in the harbor area, makes it an ideal place to construct international container terminal. Over the years, Ningbo Port faces the change of international shipping market and fierce competition of the harbors nearby. However, the port, based on the rapid development of foreign trade in Ningbo city and Zhejiang province, opens new navigation lines and increases the density of container shipping lines under the close cooperation of shipping companies. Up to now, the top 20 liner companies in the world have landed Ningbo Port. By the end of 2003, there are already 96 container-shipping lines and over 460 runs of regular ships each month. Among these shipping lines, 36 lines are ocean-going main lines, 34 lines are near-ocean-going branch lines, 14 lines are domestics branch lines, and 12 lines are domestics-trade lines. There are one run of regular ship or more each day to the main trade areas like Europe, the Mediterranean, and North America, forming originally the collecting and dispatching network around the world.The paper, by analyzing the historical data of container throughput in Ningbo Port, establishes related mathematics model and predicts the future container throughput in Ningbo Port using prediction technology like gray prediction method and increasing trend method. The prediction results, after comprehensive analysis, are as follows: in 2005, the container throughput will reach 5,300,000 TEU; in 2006, it will reach 7,000,000 TEU; and in 2007, it will reach 9,000,000 TEU. On the other hand, the annual container handling capacity of the berths of Beilun No.2 Phase and No.3 Phase, after further construction, can only reach 2,800,000 TEU. And the annual container handling capacity of the berth of Beilun No.4 Phase, which is under construction and will put into use in 2005, can just reach 800,000 TEU. We can see clearly from the above that the present container handling capacity cannot meet the demand of container transportation at Ningbo Port in 2005. The shortage of container handling capacity will become more serious after 2005.In the meanwhile, the explorative coastline is the valuable resource of the country. It is essential to enhance the management of coastline and explore thecoastline reasonably. In order to construct the Daxie container terminal suited to the development of Chinese economy and container transportation market and to make use of deepwater coastline efficiently, the author, predicting and analyzing the natural condition of Daxie, the developing trend of container throughput at Ningbo Port, and the type of arriving ships, offers some suggestions to determine the construction size of Daxie container terminal.The construction size of Daxie container terminal is to build 4 fifth/sixth generation container berths and the annual container throughput reaches 2,000,000 TEU.