Electricity Demand Model And Its Control Strategy

The development of "Electric Power Demand Management System" is important for the construction of our resource-conservative society. Managing the demand control for the power user, can help them to save cost, as well as to depress their load impulsive impact on local power network and decrease the peak-valley difference. At present, domestic research on demand control is still at the starting stage and there is lack of relevant literatures. In this paper, some theoretical and key technology problems were studied, listed as follow.(1) Requirement analysis. A kind of system model was built using the control theory and appraisal index was defined. Induced the characteristics of typical objects, meanwhile established a forecast mathematical model of a typical controlled object-for example Electric-Arc Furnace, which reflected its power demand nature.(2) Demand control strategy designment. This is a problem of closed-loop dynamic satisfying decision-making process optimization with the object containing randomness and uncertainty nonlinear elements. In this paper, two strategies, Model Predictive Control and Trend Forecasting Control, were designed and compared.(3) Closed-loop continuous stochastic simulation was made, based on textual simulation forecast mathematical model. As shown in result, trend forecasting control scheme can get the maximum demand peak suppression, which proved this method is effective. At the same time, six methods in decision-making module were compared and evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation.