Development Of Bilateral Trade Between Yunnan And Asean In The Context Of Cafta

The cooperation in economy and trade between Yunnan and ASEAN has become closer and closer since CAFTA was established. Yunnan province plays more important role as a bridgehead in the southwest of China. From 2010 to 2015, CAFTA will get into the second stage of development, and the zero-tariff policy will cover the new four members of ASEAN. The tariff of goods between China and other ASEAN members will also be further cut. At the same time, services trade and investment markets will form more favorable institutional arrangements, which will bring broader space for bilateral cooperation in economy and trade. Under this situation, we will discuss that how can connect the regional advantages of Yunnan with the preferential institutional arrangements to deeply strengthen the cooperation between Yunnan with ASEAN counties in economy and trade.In this paper, we will use econometric analysis to describe status and characteristics of the bilateral trade between Yunnan and ASEAN. On this basis, review the theory of Regional Economic Integration and then establish a Gravity Model to analysis the bilateral trade flows between Yunnan and ASEAN countries. In the further study, I present the advantages and disadvantages of Yunnan as well as the external opportunities and challenges by SWOT method. The results show that: distance and the GDP of Yunnan province and ASEAN are still major factors which affect the trade between Yunnan and ASEAN .There is still a large trade potential that can be realized. In the further development of the bilateral trade cooperation between Yunnan and ASEAN, The unique geographical advantage of Yunnan Province is a core competence. However, because of lagged economic development level, inadequate infrastructure and other reasons, the geographical advantage has not been fully exploited. Finally, Yunnan Province should adjust industrial structure, increase R&D investment, strengthen infrastructure construction, and deepen cooperation with GMS countries and Guangxi Province according to the results. So that, Yunnan can maximize its regional advantage and deeply strengthen trade relations with ASEAN.There are six parts in this thesis. The fist one is the introduction, it mainly introduces the questions which we will discuss. In the second one, regional economic integration theory and empirical studies are reviewed. The third section describes the development status and characteristics of the trade between Yunnan and ASEAN. In the fourth one, I establish a trade gravity model to analysis the bilateral trade flows in order to measure the trade potential between Yunnan and ASEAN, using Panel Data as the econometric tool. The fifth part is about SWOT analysis of Yunnan-ASEAN trade in the further development. The last one, I propose some relevant polices and recommendations according to analysis.