Chinese Manufacturing Listed Companies' Financial Crisis Early Warning

With the gradual advance of the economic globalization and the fast development of the market-directed economy in our country,more and more enterprises sink into the awkward predicament even go into bankrupt because of their financial crises. The benefits of business enterprises, especially of listed companies, pay attention to the financial crises increasingly.We should track, supervise and control the financial process of the enterprise and send out the early-warning signal early. Then we can tell the business enterprise executives the potential risk that it will face so as to make them prepare and take some measures as soon as possible to avoid or reduce the breakage of the business enterprise.It is very necessary to establish the financial early-warning model for the business enterprise, special for the listed companies.This study combines theoretic analyses and demonstration analyses together. First, the author selected 28 financial indexes that basically covered benefit ability, operation ability, repay debt ability , development ability and cash flow from the manufacturing listed companies in our country. Then,the K-S test method was adopted to judge whether the distribution of the financial ratios is the normal distribution and the application of nonparametric test was to judge whether there are remarkable differences between the two related samples. And then, to concentrate these indexes, the Factor Analysis method was adopted and selected 8 indexes containing representative sign as independent variable. Again, the financial crisis early-warning model was set up based on the development samples by the application of statistic logistic regression, which is suitable for manufacturing listed companies in our country. Finally, some business enterprises were selected from manufacturing industry listed companies in our country to examine the financial crisis early-warning model which was established according to the development samples.Hopefully, the research is a positive reference to forecast and warn financial crisis for manufacturing listed companies in our country and has some uses for studying other industrial financial crisis early- warning in our country.