Study Of Corporate Credit Risk Assessment And Decision-making Methods

With the deepening of market economy system reform, market competition appears more and more drastic. Then to reach the goal of improving sales amount and enlarge market share, large number of enterprises use credit sale as their strategy to enlarge sales amount. While because of the weak credit consciousness and the lag of credit management system construction, credit problem appears more and more serious to enterprises in our country. Default among enterprises and large amount of receivables have become the serious obstacles for the economic development and have badly affected enterprises'capital turnover and then their economic benefit.Credit risk have been paid much attention to in financial industry, especially credit risk of bank's credit business for which some staggered achievements have been made and were used to decrease the credit risk. It improves the bank's benefit. Credit sale risk deriving from the process credit sale is different from credit risk of banks. It has its own features, so we can not use the same credit risk evaluation method as banks to evaluate risk of credit sale. On the basis of analyzing economic theory of credit sale, this paper constructs index system suitable for credit sale risk evaluation. With this index system, it makes fuzzy cluster to credit sale customer's credit condition and use uncertain multiple attribute decision making methods to evaluate the customer's credit condition in the same cluster. At last, it applies portfolio theory to portfolio decision of credit sale risk and then determines the optimal credit sale quota. It also gives some suggestions to risk management of credit sale portfolio.The fist chapter introduces the related definition of credit sale and credit sale risk, recent condition of credit sale risk, researches in this area and technique route of the paper. The second chapter constructs the index system of credit sale risk evaluation, including selecting quantitative indices and qualitative indices. For the quantitative indices, it analyzes and screens out the financial indices from the view of cash flow and then combine the qualitative indices, it constructs the index system. In the third chapter, with the index system constructed, it uses fuzzy cluster method to classify the credit sale customer's credit condition and then determine the risk for every cluster which paves the ground for determining the default probability of every cluster. In the fourth chapter, it uses uncertain multiple attribute decision making methods to build a credit risk evaluation method which mainly deals with quantitative analysis and also few qualitative analysis as well. This will be helpful to determine the credit condition of customer in the same cluster. In the fifth chapter, from the view of the enterprises, it build credit sale portfolio model to get the optimal credit sale quota. Also it gives the suggestion to risk management of credit sale portfolio. The sixth chapter is the conclusion of the paper; it concludes the shortcomings of the research and puts forward the expectation of the further research.