Study On The Moderate Scale Of National Debt In China

The national debt is a double-edged sword, releasing national debt can have the positive frontage function to the economical movement, at the same time, releasing national debt also inevitable exists negative negative influence, and if the number of releasing the national debt is too excessively, it even possibly causes the debt crisis. Therefore, research moderate national debt scale has the more important necessity. The so-called moderate national debt is one certain national debt scale that realizes our country GDP some atio to continue stably to grow, simultaneously negative affects isn't serious. Under this destination, researching moderate national debt scale, it should obtains from researching relations of national debt scale and the GDP. The writer uses the empirical data from 1998 to 2004, With the application of statistical picture method, the correlation coefficient method and Eviewsoftware, finds that there is a correlation between GDP and national debt scale and highly relevant. Through the gray relation analysis of the factors affectting national debt scale, the gray correlation of GDP is the biggest, so GDP is the closest related factors to national debt scale. The article uses Granger- Simms-causality test, proves that GDP is the Granger cause of national debt scale. Based on these concusion and the stock of capital adjustment theory, the authors draw from Dr. Yang yi qun of long-term national debt for economic effects from Xi'an Jiaotong University, Using the pole placement method of the theory of economic control, separates into two strategies: feedback and no feedback, design our appropriate moderate national debt scale, it is a sector. Using the sector to calculate our national debt scale in recent years, compared with the actual national debt scale, proposes that our national debt scale is small, suggests the government strengthen the dynamics of releasing national debt.